Liquidity is returning, but the market is still in the early stages of a non-consensus bull market with high PVP; Robinhood's first wave drew traffic through memes and Launchpad, while the second wave will depend on Hooks, Agent Trading, and Tokenized Stock DeFi, while the secondary market will return to PMF, new trends, and new consensus.

Written and hosted by: Mr. Z

On October 14, 2026, 168X invited Amber Group Advisor Haotian (@tmel0211) to discuss Robinhood Chain and the new round of altcoin market.

In the past month, Robinhood quickly entered a cooling period after the wealth effect from the first wave of PONS, memes, and Launchpad. Meanwhile, the market has begun to discuss potential nine-digit Ecosystem Grants, Hooks, AI Agents, Tokenized Stocks, and who will take over in the next phase.

Haotian's judgment: The bull market may have already begun, but we are still in a phase of tentative liquidity return, where the narrative has not fully emerged, and the early bull market is heavily PVP oriented. The easiest to understand in the first phase are memes and Launchpad; however, if Robinhood really wants to transition from short-term hotspots to a long-cycle ecosystem, the baton must be passed to true infrastructure.

The secondary market is also undergoing similar changes. The model that relied on high FDV, VC backing, and distant Roadmaps to achieve premiums is failing, and new screening methods are simpler: Is there PMF? Is it a new trend? Is there a new consensus forming in the market?

1. The bull market has arrived, but making money is harder: It is now a "non-consensus + high PVP" early bull market

Mr. Z: On one hand, you feel that the bull market may have already started; on the other hand, the on-chain experience is very PVP. How should we define the current market?

Haotian: I think it is still a typical early bull market, and it is in a non-consensus phase. Many trends are still being explored, how memes pair with stocks, how AI Agents combine, and what can truly drive the next round of market has not formed a definitive answer.

Haotian: Liquidity is indeed tentatively returning, but it is far from "fully returning." ETFs have net inflows, but they will also experience net outflows during crashes, so the current issue is not a complete lack of money, but rather that everyone cannot yet determine whether this money can be sustained.

Haotian: More importantly, after a year of market bleakness, the active funds that remain are inherently speculative. This is also why many projects that emerged in Robinhood's first phase easily turned into pure PVP. It is difficult to approach these assets with a Holder's mindset because they are driven by short-term funds and short-term attention.

Haotian: So, the arrival of the bull market does not mean that making money becomes simple. Bull markets are often born out of doubt, hesitation, and low positions; when everyone truly confirms that "the bull market has arrived," the segment where it is easiest to make money is often already over.

2. Don't Price In Robinhood's nine-digit Grant just yet: Beyond money, consider who gets the resources

Mr. Z: Recently, the community is most excited about Robinhood's potential Ecosystem Grant, even rumored to be in the nine-digit, $100 million range. Is this worth pricing in ahead of time?

Haotian: I think it's a bit too early to discuss amounts now. Vlad's AMA and some statements are indeed setting community expectations, but at least during our chat, the official hasn't really solidified this matter, so we can’t consider rumors as established facts.

Haotian: Moreover, even if they eventually allocate $100 million, I believe the amount itself is not the most critical; what matters is how the money is spent and where the resources go. Is it for listing resources on the main site? Supporting memes? Supporting infrastructure? Or is it for teams that can truly build in the long term? The outcomes are entirely different.

Haotian: If the market has already priced in the "nine-digit Grant," and the official does not deliver, it could lead to negative sentiment. So this kind of thing must wait until solidified before looking at how funding aligns with Robinhood’s own distribution, listing, and developer support. Cash is just a number; how resources are allocated ultimately determines whether this money will turn into Alpha.

3. Don't just look at TVL in Robinhood's 100-day data: What needs to be monitored is the actual accumulation of Tokenized Stocks

Mr. Z: The data released by Robinhood Chain after 100 days actually looks good: over 190 Stock Tokens, 200,000 holders, covering over 120 countries and regions, Stock Token DEX Volume reaching about $15 billion, and TVL hitting $1 billion. Do you think this is enough to prove that the ecosystem is taking off?

Haotian: Simply looking at these snapshots, I think their reference value is not that high. For instance, a chain may achieve high DEX Volume in 100 days, but it could be that 80% of that volume is concentrated in the hottest 15 days, followed by a decline. Therefore, we shouldn't only look at cumulative data; we need to observe how the entire Curve develops.

Haotian: These numbers at least indicate that Robinhood places significant importance on this chain and is actively giving confidence to the market. However, if you ask me what I really want to see, I actually want to look at the actual scale and growth speed of Tokenized Stocks on Robinhood, and when it can clearly surpass competitors like xStocks and Ondo.

Haotian: This is because the biggest narrative for Robinhood this time is indeed the tokenization of stocks. If the most critical assets don't truly accumulate on the chain, then no matter how high the meme volume or how attractive the DEX volume, it could merely be short-term FOMO.

Haotian: The real directional indicator is not how much money everyone has made on this chain, but how many real stock assets are willing to remain here in the long term.

4. The first phase of PONS / Launchpad successfully directed traffic: The second wave must move from memes to infrastructure

Mr. Z: If we treat the first 100 days of Robinhood as the first phase, how would you summarize it?

Haotian: The first phase is quite easy to understand: emotions and the wealth effect came first. Initially, it was memes, followed by Launchpad and PONS, which are all easily comprehendible. This is because, in a bear market, these are the patterns that everyone is most familiar with: trading volume, fees, buybacks, and token issuance.

Haotian: The greatest value of this model is that it brings attention and funds into the ecosystem first. However, it has a natural problem, which is that it relies heavily on ecological dividends. Once the influx of new funds slows down and the quality of launched projects decreases, the income from Launchpad and Token Buyback will also decline.

Haotian: Thus, I actually hope the second wave doesn't just repeat PONS, memes, and Launchpad as they are. If the second wave still relies on unlimited token issuance, transaction taxes, and buybacks, it would signify that the genetics of this chain haven't changed fundamentally, and the market could still rise quickly but die just as fast.

Haotian: A truly healthy bull market cannot be solely composed of PVP players; it must ultimately allow builders, developers, and long-term capital to also find things they want to participate in. Thus, if the second phase is truly set to take off, I hope it will be led by infrastructure.

5. Why Hooks are starting to take over: Funds are transitioning from Launchpad to Hooks

Mr. Z: You are particularly optimistic about Hooks on Robinhood and have been paying attention to HOOKR since early on. Why?

Haotian: Actually, I did not just start paying attention to Hooks after Robinhood launched. Since Uniswap v4 came out, I've been looking at this narrative for a while. It's just that back then, the entire market was still in a bear phase, lacking liquidity, and no one was willing to pay for something that was relatively infrastructure-oriented.

Haotian: When Robinhood first took off, part of my initial ETH investment went into buying HOOKR. At that time, I hadn’t fully researched the project itself; I just felt strongly that the Hooks narrative would eventually come back into focus.

Haotian: In the first phase, it didn’t become a main character because the market only wanted to buy the easiest-to-understand Launchpad and memes. However, the situation began to change recently. After the first batch of mainstream Robinhood Tokens dropped, HOOKR rebounded from a low of about $5 million back to over $20 million and even began to challenge its previous highs, while other Hooks-related projects also started to appear.

Haotian: This doesn’t necessarily mean that HOOKR has confirmed its position as the leader in the next round, but it at least indicates one thing: existing funds are actively seeking new growth points after the first phase, and Hooks have entered their field of vision.

6. The endgame of Hooks isn't about anti-sniping: It's about upgrading "token issuance" to "programmable financial rules"

Mr. Z: But what exactly makes Hooks important? If understood merely as anti-sniping or adjusting transaction taxes, it seems there isn't much imaginative space.

Haotian: I don’t think we can only view Hooks as a single feature. I mainly studied Layer2 during the previous cycle, and various technical concepts like Modular and Chain Abstraction became a complete narrative because they can continuously yield new protocols and applications.

Haotian: Hooks actually have a similar potential. The previous Launchpad addressed "how to launch a token," but Hooks further solve the problem of whether the trading rules, fees, liquidity, buyback, anti-MEV, permissions, and subsequent behaviors can be programmed after asset issuance.

Haotian: This upgrades it from "issuing a token" to "designing a set of financial rules." For builders, it may finally not just be about trading memes, but rather about developing products around these primitives.

Haotian: Therefore, I have always felt that pure memes can drive attention in the early phases of a bull market, but they are too difficult to sustain throughout the entire cycle. During the middle phase, we certainly need a mainline that accommodates both speculative funds, developers, and longer-term capital. The potential of Hooks to fill this role is something that is just beginning to be tested now.

7. AI Agent is the biggest narrative, but also the easiest narrative to lose money on: the consensus is too strong, and the implementation is too slow

Mr. Z: Another area you are very focused on is AI Agents. But you’ve also mentioned that past waves of AI × Crypto have actually lost quite a bit of money. What are the issues?

Haotian: The biggest problem with AI × Crypto is that it’s too appealing. It’s hard to refute, and everyone will initially think the story makes a lot of sense.

Haotian: AI is moving from computing power and large model competition to the implementation of Agents. Once Agents begin executing trading, payments, asset management, and various tasks, everyone will naturally start to think: how do we verify their identity? How do we record their actions? How do we constrain their permissions? How do we manage the assets? Crypto seems to fit into every aspect.

Haotian: Precisely because this logic is so smooth, the market has seen a plethora of various AI Agent projects emerge over the past two years. However, many are merely experimental and still lack real products. Just because everyone believes a narrative is reasonable, does not mean it has reached the point where it should be valued highly.

Haotian: I am a good counterexample myself. I've been vocal about AI, and I have indeed lost considerable money on some related tokens. Upon reflection, it may not have been that the direction was wrong, but rather that everyone has been preemptively paying for a very distant milestone.

Haotian: Nevertheless, I still believe AI × Crypto will be a long-term major narrative. The distinction is this: don't overlook how far we are from the end goal just because it is grand.

8. Venice's answer: AI × Crypto first addresses real needs, then discusses Autonomous Agents

Mr. Z: Venice is quite interesting in this respect. It doesn't immediately come in talking about "AI fully autonomous, digital immortality"; it finds a need that even Web2 AI users can understand, such as privacy, inference, API credits, and then uses Crypto to solve identity, payment, or Token Incentives.

Haotian: This model is quite subtle, as it allows a balance between Crypto natives and AI users. AI people will not feel that you are forcefully stuffing Crypto into the product, and Crypto users can also find real value in Tokens or on-chain payments.

Mr. Z: When investing, we also need to look further into where the Value Accrual actually lies. An AI project might have revenue, but that doesn't mean the revenue will necessarily accrue to the token. Venice is a great example; Tokens, API Credits, and Company Equity are different things, and having a powerful product doesn't automatically mean the Token will capture all value.

Haotian: Therefore, once AI × Crypto matures in this round, I believe fewer people will simply pay for "AI + Token," but will start asking: Who are the real users? What problem does Crypto actually solve? Where is the cash flow? Where does the value ultimately land?

9. Token issuance for Agents cannot be solely delegated to AI: Human-in-the-loop may be the right form

Mr. Z: If we return to Robinhood, what do you think about the Agentic Launchpad and AI auto-managed funds on it?

Haotian: Recently, I happened to suffer significant losses from a similar concept token, so I’ve been thinking deeply about it. Initially, I thought that having Agents manage funds independently, automating buyback, burn, airdrops, with all rules being completely transparent, would be very appealing.

Haotian: However, once it is actually running, a very realistic issue arises: AI's "rule justice" may not align with the needs of the human market. AI can mechanically buy some tokens according to parameters, theoretically being fully transparent, but this buyback may hold no real significance for prices. The human market needs judgment, rhythm, and dynamic adjustments; pure AI rules can sometimes be too rigid.

Haotian: So now I prefer to see a Human-in-the-loop approach. For example, basic rules executed by Agents, but humans can adjust certain parameters or input new instructions within a public, transparent, and traceable framework.

Haotian: The next generation of Agent Launchpads may not be "AI replacing humans," but rather humans making decisions while AI executes transparently, with each human intervention being verifiable. I believe this could be the most reasonable balance for issuing tokens for Agents.

10. When choosing secondary coins, focus on three things: PMF, new trends, new consensus

Mr. Z: Shifting the focus from Robinhood back to the entire secondary market, you have recently dealt with strong assets like HYPE, LIT, STX, ZEC, NEAR, STRK. What is the core framework for picking Altcoins now?

Haotian: The biggest lesson from the previous round is already quite clear: projects with high VC control, high FDV, large token unlocks, and no PMF are very high-risk. The previous round allowed for long-term valuations, but in this cycle, people are much less willing.

Haotian: So you can simply look for the opposite. First, there is a product with real PMF; second, it has tapped into new trends; third, it is forming new market attention and consensus.

Haotian: This is why some older projects from the previous round might have survived, but may not have a chance anymore; conversely, assets that have already proven their product may become targets that both institutional funds and retail investors are willing to accept if they tap into a new narrative.

Haotian: This round does not mean "all Alts rise together"; rather, with the increasing number of junk projects, true gems are likely to receive a higher concentration of capital.

11. Four main lines to watch in the coming months: Privacy, PerpDEX, AI, Post-Quantum

Mr. Z: If you had to rank the main lines to watch in the secondary market for the next few months, what would they be?

Haotian: The big directions have become fairly clear. First is Privacy, such as assets like ZEC that are being re-understood by the market; second is PerpDEX, where Hyperliquid and Lighter represent directions with true product innovation; third is still AI, regardless of new projects or established chains like NEAR, as long as they want to regain market attention, AI will be a very important angle.

Haotian: The fourth is the emerging area of Cryptography / Post-Quantum. As AI’s mathematical capabilities grow stronger, the market will naturally reconsider the security of existing cryptography. When I saw related discussions, my first reaction was to search for assets related to cryptography, and I also engaged in areas like STRK.

Haotian: This narrative often cannot be fully predicted just by crafting a Research Report a year in advance; it might ignite due to a sudden technical event. So apart from having a long-term thesis, you also need to retain the ability to quickly re-underwrite.

Haotian: To encapsulate, I would now keep an eye on: Privacy, PerpDEX, AI, and Cryptography. As for specific assets, it will always depend on who genuinely has products, funding, and market consensus at the time, rather than just which label they belong to.

12. Why HYPE / LIT can still be revalued: PerpDEX is one of the few truly product-driven Crypto Infra

Mr. Z: Why do you prioritize PerpDEX so highly? HYPE and LIT have already risen quite a bit; why can they continue to be favorable?

Haotian: The biggest distinction between PerpDEX and many narratives is that it genuinely solves a problem and is truly being used. Products like Hyperliquid and Lighter do not rely on white papers to tell stories; they have real volume, users, and structural innovations in the market.

Haotian: They have even started to bring in assets outside of Crypto, including stocks and new trading needs like pre-IPO pricing. This means its TAM isn't just "how much Crypto Perp is stolen from Binance," but whether the entire 24/7 On-chain Derivatives Market can continue to expand.

Haotian: What's more interesting this time around is that very few projects have managed to survive from the previous round and subsequently become core assets in the new cycle. As the number of junk projects increases, it becomes easier for capital to concentrate on a few winners.

Haotian: Therefore, we can’t rely on the fixed Market Cap Ceiling approach from the previous round to view these leading projects. When the number of available high-quality assets decreases, the valuations of true PMF winners could potentially open up again.

13. "Crypto VCs have disappeared": The next round of VCs will become the top players on the chain

Mr. Z: This round of Launchpad, on-chain financing, and Hyperliquid are all diminishing the role of traditional VCs. Do you think Crypto VCs will still exist in the future?

Haotian: If you ask me about traditional Crypto VCs, I believe they have already disappeared; there is no need to fantasize. But this pool of funds will not disappear; it will simply be reborn in another way.

Haotian: In the previous round, VCs played the game of early investments, acquiring low-cost chips, waiting for TGE, and exiting through high FDV. But the market has grown weary of this model, so next round, VCs may directly engage in on-chain projects or participate in incubation, even entering once a project has reached a $20 million or $30 million valuation through OTC or direct token purchases.

Haotian: From this perspective, it increasingly resembles a top player with greater funding capacity rather than traditional Venture Capital. They may not even need to publicly reveal who they are, nor bear the burden of a 4-year unlock, and can compete on the same playing field as secondary and on-chain funds.

Haotian: Another portion of VCs will continue to genuinely engage with early projects that have technical barriers, such as new PerpDEX, AI, and Cryptography. But regardless of which type, simply "I have money; I can buy primary" is no longer an edge.

Haotian: VCs must also prove why they are qualified to capture Alpha.

14. Robinhood vs Solana: One competes in asset innovation, the other in funding efficiency

Mr. Z: If Robinhood, Solana, Base, and BSC all begin targeting Tokenized Stocks and on-chain trading, what will each of these chains rely on to win in the end?

Haotian: I think we must consider the foundational colors of each chain. Robinhood's core advantage is very clear: Tokenized Stocks + Distribution. So what it truly needs to do is to develop the rights, liquidity, and DeFi composability of stock tokens, and then allow on-chain products to grow around these assets.

Haotian: Solana has a completely different advantage. Its greatest strength is the exceptionally high funding efficiency. Funds can transition from CEX to on-chain very quickly, and the depth of stablecoins is sufficient; thus, once a narrative begins to foster FOMO, it can quickly drive the Market Cap to high levels.

Haotian: This is also why many narratives may not have originated on Solana, yet the greatest wealth effects are often captured by Solana. It may not be the first innovator but could be the best at magnifying innovation.

Haotian: Thus, in this round of Tokenized Stocks, we could see a similar script: Robinhood competes in innovation and asset entry, while Solana competes in liquidity and speculative heights. As for Base and BSC, for now, I won't place them on the same priority level; at least their respective advantages aren't as clear as the first two.

15. The true Alpha of Robinhood in the next three months: Hooks, Agent Trading, Stock DeFi; don’t be swayed by FOMO

Mr. Z: Finally, looking ahead to the next 3 to 6 months, what should we keep an eye on regarding Robinhood?

Haotian: First, it’s still Tokenized Stocks. But don’t just look at "who claims to be doing Stock DeFi," but rather whether there are truly stock assets accumulating on it. If Tokenized Stocks achieve equal rights in aspects like Dividend and Voting Rights compared to traditional stocks in the future, paired with deep enough on-chain liquidity, then the ensuing Lending, Collateral, Yield, and Liquidity Protocols will truly be meaningful.

Haotian: The second is Hooks. If Robinhood wants the second phase not to repeat memes and Launchpad, it needs truly tech-driven projects with stronger sustainability to emerge. Hooks are currently the line I’m most eager to validate.

Haotian: The third is Agent Trading. Robinhood is heavily investing in automated trading with Agents, so from the perspective of Ecosystem Incentives, this could likely be the direction the officials are willing to promote in the next phase.

Haotian: However, I want to particularly remind everyone about something: applications like FOMO for social trading. They indeed bring new funds, new traffic, and new trading methods, but they can severely amplify emotional trading. When a top KOL shouts, a coin may shoot up 30% in an instant; in extreme cases, even by multiples. If you wait to see signals before jumping in, it’s easy to lose 10% on the first trade.

Haotian: So, social trading can be a tool for observing signals, but do not treat it as a mindless copy-trading tool. Just because the platform is called FOMO doesn't mean you should actually FOMO.

Haotian: I think what the market currently needs is not more emotions but to wait for the real infrastructure of the second phase to emerge. The most dangerous thing in the early stages of a bull market is to treat the money-making methods of the first phase as rules that will continue to be effective throughout the entire bull market.

Mr. Z: In the final segment, I will distill Haotian's framework into four judgments. First, it is still the early stage of a bull market with high PVP and tentative liquidity return, so "the bull market has arrived" does not mean all Alts will rise together; second, Robinhood’s first phase successfully drew traffic through memes and Launchpad, but the second phase must truly validate Hooks, Agent Trading, and DeFi that can accumulate real Tokenized Stocks; third, the screening criteria in the secondary market have shifted from VC backing and high FDV to PMF, new trends, and new consensus, with Privacy, PerpDEX, AI, and Post-Quantum being the lines worth tracking continually; fourth, the easiest way to lose money in this round may not be misjudging the direction but being too early to FOMO within the right context. First find the trend, then confirm the Product and Value Accrual, and only then decide when to place bets.