Breaking below 80,000, it is still continuing a bearish trend, and everyone should not feel that the trend has been confirmed yet. The decline before the interest rate meeting has made me even more worried. If there is no decline at this stage, the depth after the interest rate meeting will be even greater. The current decline seems more like preparation for the interest rate meeting, and it is highly likely there will be substantial volatility on that day. My feeling is that it is setting the stage for future fluctuations. Under normal circumstances, without the interference of this meeting, we could establish the trend tomorrow, which is Monday. The only interference afterwards is the interest rate meeting. Even if there is a collapse tomorrow, we should not chase after it. The good news is that around 85,000 has provided opportunities for everyone to enter the market. For mid-term users, it's certain that they have made some profits, and we only need to expand from here. For short-term users, don't think about making a profit; they also need to maintain their entry and exit on the same day, especially not to be greedy and think about increasing profits. A short-term profit target of 1,000 points should be the standard; once obtained, you need to withdraw.

Let's talk about the exchange rate issue again. I have many users who have some relation to foreign trade; everyone seems to be very concerned about the ways of foreign trade settlement, so they are particularly attentive to the exchange rate. Indeed, recently Goldman Sachs' forecast about exchange rates has shown very high aggression, promoting that it will reach 5.5. Currently, this position cannot be seen in the short term, especially as the conflict between the US and Iran is unresolved, and targeted measures cannot be implemented. The games between the two sides will continue, and military issues are certainly the primary concerns. Our optimistic judgment this year is also based on the military aspect. Clearly, when the situation cannot be resolved, I have brought up interest rate hikes as a response, which is also to prepare adequately for future military actions. Combined with Trump's recent remarks, everyone seems somewhat intimidated, saying that as soon as the war ends, oil prices will plummet. Look at the production; it’s merely about reaching an agreement with Russia in the short term to achieve some level of relief. To get global oil prices back to previous levels, even with a proper resolution of the Middle East issues, it will take 2-3 years for recovery. (This is still an estimation in an ideal state.)

This situation increases the threat to us. In all the games, can you think that even before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we had already negotiated energy contracts for the next ten years (with Russia)? Under these circumstances, the threat over the next decade is not significant, and foreign inflation will also need time to transmit to the domestic market. The core issue with the exchange rate pegging is still the problem of trade surplus; the Americans certainly want to do this, but if they genuinely wish to achieve this goal, the difficulty is still substantial. Do not let yourselves be intimidated; touching between 6-6.5 is possible, and indeed the low point in the last decade has reached this position, with the 5 starting point somewhat underestimating domestic strength. A downward movement in the exchange rate is a favorable piece of news for the cryptocurrency sector; under this premise, the exchange rate cannot just target one position for a decline; the depreciation of the dollar will become a global phenomenon. The paths we need will increasingly depend on a more equitable approach, focusing more on the cryptocurrency market.

Once such a trend emerges, options for Europe and Asia concerning stablecoin legislation and the process of tokenization will unfold rapidly. It might all pass and circulate within a year; this prediction targets external markets and does not include the domestic situation. Domestically, the focus can only be on the application of stablecoins, with more means for foreign trade settlement. In fact, signs of this already exist domestically. Applications of Mastercard or Visa have advertisements in many places; such explorations usually lead the way. Everyone should not have too much resistance; the innovation of currency serves as a driving force for the current financial environment rather than a confrontational product. A more detailed description is that the current financial market needs cryptocurrencies; even before Bitcoin is legalized, it reached above 60,000 solely relying on capital from the crypto sphere. Now, it is even more reliant on it, and its prospects will be even broader.

Summary from me: The first paragraph is an explanation targeted at contract users, while the following three paragraphs are discussions with spot users. Some of my fans are too extreme, seemingly possessing a black-and-white mindset, which can lead to more losses. The essence of spot and contract trading are two different methods; during a bear market, it is an opportunity to buy spot, while contracts provide an opportunity to short. The current situation is a bear market phase; compared to the trends of the previous two years, the position of 126,000 is the high point of the last bull market, and the loss has already come. The current layout for spot is aimed at launching the next bull market, so positioning around 60,000 to 70,000 will not pose significant problems. Contract users need to prevent further losses; the contract method is also meant to control the losses of spot trading. As long as you are in touch with spot users, trading contracts should only have one direction: short.

Breaking below 80,000, do not think it’s a new round of market explosion; the current trajectory is simply paving the way for the upcoming interest rate meeting and mid-term elections. At that time, the impact of the news will seem to have more manipulation space from major players. Do not underestimate the impact of these two news pieces; there is only a week of time buffer between their developments. It is possible for the entire fluctuation to stretch between 5,000-10,000 points. The closer we get to this time frame, the more we need to protect the chips in hand. Only after these two pieces of information are confirmed will there be space for profit. Once it’s confirmed, everyone’s profit will be at least above 10,000 points. What contract users need to do now is to utilize the recent bearish market to accumulate capital as quickly as possible; then, they can plan to short. The profits in November and December will determine everyone's overall earnings for this year, and it is essential to seize this market opportunity. If you don’t understand, you can ask me.

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