Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net inflows for two consecutive days; is the market about to reverse?
From October 22 to 23, there was a total net outflow of about $774 million from U.S. spot BTC ETFs; from October 26 to 27, funds switched back to net inflow, totaling approximately $135 million.
The flow of funds has improved, but compared to the size of previous outflows, the recent inflows over the last two days are not substantial. This can indicate some positive changes in the market, but it is not enough to confirm that BTC has reversed.
Moving forward, three signals can be closely monitored: ETF fund flow, the real buying in the spot market, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
1. First, let's look at recent data: changes in ETF fund flows
Recently, the fund flows of U.S. spot BTC ETFs experienced significant net inflows, concentrated net outflows, and then a return to net inflows for two consecutive days.
Data source: https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/web3-etf/us-btc
ETF net inflows usually indicate that the net subscription funds received by the related funds are positive; ETF net outflows indicate that funds exiting, such as redemptions, exceed those that flowed in.
Spot BTC ETFs hold assets linked to the price of Bitcoin, so this data can help us observe changes in market demand for related funds and the participation of some institutional investors.
However, ETF inflows do not guarantee that BTC will rise, and outflows do not mean that the price will necessarily fall. When making judgments, three things can be looked at:
- How much is the amount: Inflows of tens of millions of dollars and hundreds of millions of dollars have different signal strengths.
- How long can it last: Continuous inflows over several days are more worth paying attention to than a single day's inflow.
- How does the price react: If funds continue to flow in but BTC does not strengthen, it indicates that there may still be other selling pressures in the market.
From recent data, ETF fund flows have temporarily eased, but whether it can form continuous buying remains to be seen.
2. Why is there inflow into the ETF, but BTC may still weaken?
ETFs are just a window to observe market funds; they do not represent the entire spot market.
Market analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that spot demand for BTC remains weak. Even if ETFs show net inflows again, if other spot buying is insufficient, the price may not receive sustained support.
Newcomers can also pay attention to one indicator: Coinbase premium.
Simply put, it compares the price of BTC on Coinbase and Binance. If BTC on Coinbase remains cheaper than on Binance, it may indicate weaker relative buying on Coinbase; if BTC on Coinbase is continually more expensive, it might reflect relatively active buying demand on that platform.
However, the price difference between the two platforms may also be affected by trading pairs, liquidity, and other factors. The Coinbase premium should only be used as a supplementary reference and cannot solely determine whether U.S. funds are buying or selling.
Therefore, to judge whether the market has truly improved, one cannot only look at ETF net inflows; it is also essential to observe whether spot demand and price performance can mutually confirm each other.
3. The Federal Reserve's decision may become the next test
On October 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and hold a press conference.
Market attention is focused not only on whether interest rates will change but also on the guidance of policies and the Federal Reserve's judgment on inflation and economic prospects.
This information may impact the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and market risk appetite, thereby transmitting to risk assets like BTC.
Next, attention can be focused on two aspects:
- Whether there are changes in interest rate expectations: If the market's judgment on the future path of interest rates adjusts, risk assets may fluctuate accordingly.
- The price reaction after the announcement: Even if the results meet expectations, the statements during the press conference may influence market trends. Don't just glance at news headlines; also observe the actual response of BTC and U.S. stocks.
It is important to note that the relationship between Federal Reserve policy and BTC is not a simple one-way relationship. Markets often trade expectations in advance, and the ultimate trend depends on the difference between policy results and prior expectations, as well as other market factors.
4. Newcomers should focus on these three signals
Next, it might be beneficial to focus on three continuously trackable indicators.
1. ETF fund flow: Watch whether funds continue to flow back
Don't assume that the market has reversed just because there were net inflows for two consecutive days. Continuity, the scale of inflows, and whether prices can receive support are all worth observing together.
2. Spot demand: See if there are real buyers in the market
Besides ETF data, one can also observe spot trading volumes, how the market holds up when prices retreat, and auxiliary indicators like the Coinbase premium. Multiple signals confirming each other are more reliable than focusing on just one indicator.
3. Federal Reserve decisions: Watch how macro expectations change
Pay close attention to interest rate decisions, policy guidance, and market reactions. Macroeconomic news may bring short-term fluctuations but does not necessarily mean BTC will move in a particular direction.
Conclusion
The net inflows into BTC ETFs for two consecutive days is indeed a noteworthy change, but it cannot yet confirm a trend reversal.
What is more worthy of observation is whether ETF funds can continue to flow back, whether spot buying improves, and whether BTC can gradually stabilize. Several signals confirming each other provide a more substantial basis for judgment.
If there are currently no suitable entry opportunities, there is no need to force trades just to participate in the market. Understanding market changes is crucial, and knowing when to continue observing is equally important.
If you want to continuously track ETF fund flows, BTC price movements, and other data, you can visit
AiCoin official website: https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans,
Switch to the 【Professional Version】 and click on the 【Data】 section on the homepage to view the relevant indicators. Observing the changes in funds and price movements together helps provide a more comprehensive understanding of the market status.
If you still do not have a Binance account, you can register through the link below:
👉 https://jump.do/zh-Hans/xlink-proxy?id=3
(Invitation code: aicoin668, enjoy a 10% rebate)
Registered users can also pay attention to the platform's USDC holding reward activity. Eligible participants can join for a 2% reward bonus; details are subject to the activity rules.
The market changes every day; first, understand the signals released by funds and prices before deciding whether to act. Wishing everyone successful trading while being mindful of risks.
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Risk warning: This article is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency asset prices are highly volatile, so please make cautious decisions.
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