As of 4 PM on October 27, 2026, BTC has returned to around $80,000, fluctuating back and forth. The Federal Reserve meeting has yet to yield results; how should we view this current pullback?
After such a rise, can we still understand this in terms of a pullback typical for the early stages of a bull market?
My view is: the possibility of an early bull phase can still be maintained, but for the current situation, I will first look at it as a correction after a retracement.
First, let's look at the daily chart of BTC. In the chart, BTC is near $80,000, the previous month's high was around $87,400. Friends holding positions must have felt this retracement: the rebounds are becoming increasingly difficult, and market sentiment has also declined.
The structure built by the previous rise has not yet been completely destroyed, and the key next step is to find the support position for this round of retracement.
Simply put, after a decline, if buyers are willing to step in at a price higher than the previous low, the basis for continuation of the rise still exists. If the price breaks below the previous low and the rebound fails to rise, the original judgment needs to be revised.
$76,000 is a key position for judging the trend structure, and the hypothesis of a bull market still needs subsequent price action to validate it.
Switching to the 4-hour chart, between $82,000 and $84,000, a large number of transactions have accumulated. The funds that entered the market previously in this range may exert selling pressure when the price returns here. Meanwhile, the area around $77,000 is also a concentration zone for holdings. The price is caught between two areas of concentration; I see $80,000 as the dividing line for observing short-term strength or weakness.
If the price can regain $82,000 and stabilize at this position during the pullback, there will be a basis for further upward testing of the $84,000 resistance.
Now let’s look at the latest news from the funding side.
AiCoin monitoring data shows that on October 26, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $110 million, mainly from BlackRock’s IBIT.
Single-day capital inflow is undoubtedly a positive signal. However, looking at the longer term, over the past five trading days, the market is still in a net outflow state, so this inflow can only be seen as a brief recovery and not as a trend reversal.
$110 million has come in, so why is BTC still stagnant?
While ETFs are buying, there are also market sell-offs occurring; the contract side's speculations can also disturb the market. A single capital flow can only provide incremental buying power; whether it can push the price up depends on the volume of sell orders above.
I will continue to track the market's feedback after the capital inflows. A continuous net inflow, with prices steadily rising, would represent genuine buying power taking the lead; if after the capital enters, there is only a slight rise followed by a drop, it indicates that the overhead selling pressure still needs time to digest.
Next, let's look at Coinbase BTC premiums to supplement the changes in relative demand during trading.
The core of understanding this chart is the zero axis. The zero axis represents that the bids on both sides are basically equal; if the premium is above the zero axis, it means Coinbase is quoting higher, which typically indicates that buying power on this side is relatively strong; if the premium falls below the zero axis, it means Coinbase's quotes are relatively low, indicating either weak buying power or rising selling pressure.
The greatest utility of this indicator is to verify the quality of the rise. When BTC rapidly rises, we observe the premium simultaneously: if prices go up and the premium rises from negative to positive and stabilizes, it can be seen as a sign of following through on spot demand; if prices rise but the premium remains weak, it indicates that domestic demand has not followed, and we need to continue identifying the driving forces behind the market movements.
ETFs are used to observe the inflow and outflow of product funds after trading days, while Coinbase premiums supplement the relative demand changes in trading. Observing both together can help determine if the increase has more spot support; the premium itself does not equate to how much actual capital has flowed in.
Combining the news flashes and premiums, I will first treat the capital return as a sign of improvement. Whether buying power can continue for several days and whether prices can rise accordingly still needs to be verified.
The most significant variable affecting the market next is the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28 in the U.S., corresponding to 2 AM on the 29th Beijing time when the interest rate decision will be announced, followed by a press conference at 2:30 AM. To closely monitor the changes in this wave of market activity, you'll need to stay up for the news.
To briefly review the background, on September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the rate range to 3.75%—4%. The market is currently concerned about how long the Federal Reserve will observe after the rate hike and whether there will be further hikes.
For BTC, how this interest rate is set is crucial; how long the tightening pressure will continue will also influence capital choices. After seeing the decision, one must also listen to how the press conference explains it.
I am more concerned about how much impact the rate hike in September actually had in the eyes of the Federal Reserve. The transmission of the rate hike to corporate financing and consumer spending, then affecting inflation, requires time. How this transmission process is evaluated will influence the market's judgment for December.
If the interest rate remains unchanged but the Federal Reserve still emphasizes inflation pressure, believing that the current policy measures may not be sufficient, the market will again consider the possibility of further hikes. Financing costs may rise further, and funds already in positions may focus more on retracements, with funds planning to enter the market also possibly slowing down the pace. Even if there is no rate hike this time, a tightening stance could still put pressure on BTC.
If the interest rate remains the same, but the Federal Reserve emphasizes that financing conditions have tightened and demand is beginning to cool, only requiring more data for confirmation, the market may interpret it as the September rate hike is taking effect, and the policy is willing to wait a bit longer. The concerns regarding continuous rate hikes will lessen, potentially easing the external pressure on BTC. However, "observing policy effects" still comes with conditions, and future inflation data will affect how long this observation window can last.
Another possibility is an additional hike of 25 basis points. Increasing borrowing costs usually lowers the willingness to take on risk, which could pressure BTC. However, the statements following a rate hike may vary: If it is believed that adjustments can be observed for a period, expectations for continuous rate hikes may decrease; if the policy is still deemed insufficient, funds will need to consider a longer tightening environment.
These are pre-meeting projections, and the results have not yet been announced. For short-term trading, one can think ahead about how to respond when different scenarios arise; for longer periods, one waits for the decision and subsequent data to return to their own judgments.
Once the news comes out, I will observe in this order: whether there is any change in interest rate paths, how U.S. treasury yields respond, and then see if ETF and spot demand are keeping pace. This way, I will not just fixate on one title, getting overly excited with a rise or feeling like the sky is falling with a drop.
U.S. treasury yields deserve to be looked at separately. In the chart, the yield on the U.S. 10-year treasury has pulled back from previous highs. If this pullback can persist, the pressure from interest rates and valuations on risk assets may ease; if yields rise again, BTC may face pressure once more. This serves as a clue for observing the external environment, but it cannot solely determine whether BTC will rise or fall next.
Once the market is viewed, let’s revisit your positions.
BTC has fallen from $87,400 to $80,000. After this round of decline, has your initial defined position duration wavered?
This is a common state in trading: when entering the market with a plan to hold for half a year, it’s easy to think about increasing positions as the market rises; after several days of continuous pullback, one fixates on every candlestick. The originally clear trading plan may slowly drift off course, and a single Federal Reserve meeting can cause anxiety to the point of insomnia.
It may be worth asking yourself what logic you relied on when you initially entered the market.
If your strategy was for short-term rebounds, after the market weakens, the trading logic becomes ineffective, and exiting the position itself aligns with your rules.
If you are a long-term holder, the statement from one meeting needs to be weighed within your original trading framework.
Both lines of thought are reasonable. What is most tormenting is that when the market moves, your holding duration fluctuates back and forth. Trading itself can be tedious; it is natural for emotions to ebb and flow with the market.
For the same magnitude of pullback, some people are unaffected and continue their lives as usual, while others can’t help but refresh their accounts repeatedly. Besides understanding the market, the size of your positions and whether you are using leverage can amplify your emotional volatility. When pressure rises, people are quick to seek psychological comfort, believing that good news will lead to an immediate surge, and seeing bad news leads them to think the market has completely topped out.
Before the meeting concludes, it is important to clarify one thing: what kind of signals would prompt you to overturn your original trading plan?
In short-term trading, write down the conditions under which your trading would become invalid; for long-term holdings, clarify the fundamental logic for your confidence in BTC, and what facts might overturn that logic.
Returning to the initial judgment: if $76,000 holds, I will continue to consider the possibility of an early bull market, viewing this round of retracement as an adjustment within the upward process. If the structure deteriorates, adjustments must be made accordingly; one cannot just demand the market to cooperate solely based on personal bullish sentiment.
Even if believing in an early bull market, positions must be able to withstand the fluctuations during this period. I tend to interpret repeated oscillations as a handover of holdings, but "washing and accumulating" ultimately is a judgment that needs later prices and capital to verify. Do not let a meeting that hasn’t happened yet scatter your planned positions.
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