The fourth largest asset management company in Germany, DekaBank, recently disclosed its purchase of 104,921 shares of the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy. This is valued at approximately 15.2 million USD based on a single source; regarding Middle Eastern capital, SAC has established its headquarters in Abu Dhabi and launched a Bitcoin and real estate investment strategy totaling 1.5 billion USD, with plans for Coinbase Asset Management to manage its Bitcoin reserves exclusively; American real estate investor Grant Cardone has thrown a 1 million USD bet to Bitcoin critic Jason Calacanis, wagering that Bitcoin will reach or exceed 126,210.50 USD by October 28, 2028. Corresponding to this simultaneous increase from multiple parties, global listed companies currently hold about 1.3 million BTC, with an increase of about 31% over the past 14 months, of which Strategy has contributed approximately 71% of the increment. The curve of corporate and institutional holdings continues to rise, but the profit status of on-chain short-term funds is rapidly narrowing: CryptoQuant analysis shows that the cost basis for short-term holders is around 76,500 USD, averaging a profit for nearly two months, and unrealized profits have decreased from about 20% less than a month ago to the current approximately 5.5%. The last time the profit level was this high was shortly before the peak in October 2025, after which the market entered a consolidation phase. At a time when corporate and institutional buying continues to absorb chips, yet on-chain short-term holders are giving similar consolidation signals to historical peaks, the core question has shifted from "Is there a bullish view on Bitcoin?" to "Can these new institutional buys counterbalance the downside pressure indicated by the on-chain consolidation signals?"

German Asset Management and Treasury Companies Competing for Bitcoin

As on-chain short-term funds gradually enter a high-profit consolidation zone, traditional German asset management begins to increase its Bitcoin exposure through equity paths. As the fourth largest asset management company in Germany, DekaBank has disclosed for the first time the purchase of 104,921 shares of the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy, valued at about 15.2 million USD from a single source. This is not a single large spot purchase but a typical case of acquiring indirect exposure through holding shares in a Bitcoin treasury company. Currently, there are two main paths for corporations and institutions to increase Bitcoin exposure: one is to directly allocate Bitcoin in their own treasury, and the other is to buy shares of publicly traded companies heavily invested in Bitcoin. DekaBank's choice of the second path indicates that the regulated German asset management is willing to incorporate "Bitcoin treasury stocks" into traditional equity portfolios, bearing the price fluctuations of Bitcoin and corporate financial strategies in equity form, which is more easily accepted by internal and regulatory systems under compliance, accounting, and risk control frameworks.

This type of equity path, combined with corporate treasury needs, has formed a continuous buying force for spot Bitcoin. Currently, global listed companies collectively hold approximately 1.3 million BTC, with an increase of about 31% over the past 14 months, and corporate treasuries have become an important part of Bitcoin demand. However, the increment structure is extremely concentrated: Strategy contributed approximately 71% of the BTC increment among listed companies over the past 14 months, meaning that a large part of the new buying in the corporate sector over the past year has come from this single treasury entity's continued accumulation. From a support perspective, this concentration reinforces the structural demand for Bitcoin, providing downward price protection; from a risk perspective, institutions such as DekaBank increasing Bitcoin exposure through holding Strategy shares are essentially further binding corporate and institutional Bitcoin risk exposure to the asset-liability management and operational decisions of a single treasury company. This concentration structure is not only the core pivot of current demand but also a potential weakness that needs to be closely monitored during future market fluctuations.

Middle Eastern Capital with 1.5 Billion Investment, Bitcoin Reserves Launched

As the concentration of corporate treasury buying continues to rise, regional capital is also beginning to systematically intervene in Bitcoin reserves. Standard Asset Company (SAC) has chosen to set up its headquarters in Abu Dhabi and directly announced a Bitcoin and real estate investment strategy totaling 1.5 billion USD, a scale derived from a single source, meaning that the decision-making chain is highly centralized and the execution efficiency is higher. More noteworthy is that SAC is not isolating Bitcoin in its allocation but packaging it with real estate, balancing cash flow-type assets and reserve-type assets within the same strategic framework, clearly incorporating Bitcoin into the long-term asset allocation basket, further reinforcing the signal of Middle Eastern capital's interest shifting from "tactical trading" to "structural holding" of such crypto assets.

SAC plans for Coinbase Asset Management to manage its Bitcoin reserves exclusively, delegating the investment and custody processes to compliant asset management institutions, highlighting the sensitivity of regional capital to regulatory, custodial, and operational risks upon entering the market. Bitcoin reserves are concentrated under a single manager for custody, which simplifies the execution path and reserves standardized channels for subsequent additional allocations; on the other hand, this structure binds the Bitcoin risk exposure of Middle Eastern capital to a few compliant custodians globally, with a new concentration extending from corporate treasuries to the custody and regional capital dimensions. With SAC leading the layout, Middle Eastern capital is expected to transform from a peripheral trading force to a continuous source of buying demand within the long-term funding structure for Bitcoin, and regional demand for Bitcoin will gradually transition from price-driven dynamics to core allocation needs centered around reserves and asset portfolio management.

Profits Dropping from 20% to 5.5%, On-Chain Support Level Revealed

As corporations and Middle Eastern funds continue to ramp up their investments, the profit and loss structure of on-chain short-term holders has shown a significant contraction. According to the calculations of CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the cost basis for short-term Bitcoin holders is concentrated around 76,500 USD. This group has generally remained in a profitable range for nearly two months. However, less than a month ago, the unrealized profits for short-term positions averaged around 20%, currently only remaining about 5.5%. The profit margin has slid from double digits to mid-single digits in such a short period, indicating that recent price fluctuations are increasingly eroding the safety cushion for short-term funds, and the willingness of new funds to chase highs and the willingness of old funds to take profits are changing. The market rhythm is shifting from unilateral expansion to a more consolidation-oriented pace.

The cost basis of 76,500 USD is thus regarded as the key on-chain support level for the current market: as long as the price operates above this range, short-term holders as a whole remain in a positive profit state, and selling pressure is more likely to come from profit-taking at high levels rather than panic selling; once it effectively breaks below, this group will quickly turn from overall profitability to loss, with risks of short-term selling pressure amplifying. More importantly, historical on-chain data shows that the last time short-term holders had such a high average profit level was shortly before the peak in October 2025, after which the market entered a consolidation phase. The rapid retreat of unrealized profit margins resonates with this historical episode; under the backdrop of institutional demand providing support, short-term holder data has already sketched out an on-chain key support range centered around 76,500 USD, which could switch to consolidation and correction at any moment.

Institutional Support or High-Level Buying, Bitcoin Short-Term Game

As the cost basis for on-chain short-term holders has been compressed to around 76,500 USD and the average profit margin has dropped from about 20% less than a month ago to about 5.5% today, the price range has shifted from "generally high profit and loss" to "profit and loss sensitivity zone." At this point, the global listed companies' Bitcoin holdings have increased by about 31% over the past 14 months, with Strategy alone contributing about 71% of the increment. Added to this is DekaBank's first purchase of Strategy shares and SAC's establishment of its headquarters in Abu Dhabi with a planned total of 1.5 billion USD for Bitcoin and real estate investment strategies. This continuous allocation from corporate treasuries and institutional funds is forming a notable tension with the narrowing profits of short-term positions: the former tends toward asset allocation measured in quarters and years, while the latter may choose to take profits or cut losses within a few trading weeks due to changes in profit and loss.

As prices fluctuate around the cost basis of short-term holders, the impact of institutional and corporate buying is crucially tied to "correction amplitudes" and "consolidation rhythms." On-chain data shows that short-term holders have remained generally profitable for nearly two months; if the market tests below the cost line, concentrated selling pressure from this group could intensify the depth of the correction. However, corporate treasuries and Middle Eastern capital exhibit clear long-term allocation characteristics, theoretically more likely to gradually absorb buying as prices approach or slightly break the key support level, making corrections lean more towards time-based consolidation rather than drastic one-day or one-week sell-offs. From a funding structure perspective, the corporate treasury represented by Strategy, as well as the Bitcoin positions under exclusive management by Coinbase Asset Management, are constructing a mid-to-long-term demand base while bearing the cyclical risks of accumulating in a high-profit zone for short-term holders. Whether they can truly serve as a "support base" depends on whether this capital decisively increases allocations or chooses to reduce positions and wait during future price corrections.

Million Dollar Bet and Next Steps Under Institutional Increases

While the high-profit zone for short-term holders continues to be strengthened, American real estate investor Grant Cardone has thrown a 1 million USD bet to Bitcoin critic Jason Calacanis, betting that Bitcoin will reach or exceed 126,210.50 USD by October 28, 2028 (according to a single source). This extreme price assumption brings some investors' long-term optimistic sentiments and internal market differences to the forefront. From a data standpoint, over the past 14 months, global listed companies have collectively held about 1.3 million BTC, with an increase of approximately 31%, of which Strategy has contributed about 71% of the increment. Following this, DekaBank purchased 104,921 shares of Strategy, valued at around 15.2 million USD, alongside SAC's establishment in Abu Dhabi with a total planned investment of 1.5 billion USD in Bitcoin and real estate strategies, with its Bitcoin reserves exclusively managed by Coinbase Asset Management, corporate and institutional exposures are still systematically rising. Unlike the optimistic funding situation, CryptoQuant indicates that the cost basis for short-term holders is around 76,500 USD, and the overall status has been profitable for nearly two months, with unrealized profits declining from about 20% less than a month ago to approximately 5.5%. The last time the profit level for short-term holders was similar was shortly before the peak in October 2025, after which the market entered a consolidation phase. The next points of observation will focus on whether the buying acceleration among corporate treasuries and listed companies can maintain the current pace, whether short-term holders' profits continue to be compressed or even approach the cost line, and how the 76,500 USD support level performs under potential corrections. These data points will indicate Bitcoin's next move more directly than any million-dollar bet.

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