As of the afternoon of October 28, 2026, BTC is still fluctuating around $80,000. Macro news is coming in succession; aside from the Federal Reserve, we also need to watch this Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting on October 30.
Based on the current pre-meeting expectations, the market leans toward the Bank of Japan pausing interest rate hikes in October. What needs to be discerned is whether it's a dovish pause or a hawkish pause. Even if there is no movement, if the statements are laying the groundwork for a rate hike in December, what the market hears will be a different matter.
I will also watch the pace of both the US and Japanese central banks, as well as their tolerance for inflation. Previously, Japan aimed to push inflation to 2%, but now officials are starting to worry about inflation getting out of control. If these concerns prevail at the meeting, even if rates remain unchanged, hawkish wording may raise Japanese bond yields and strengthen the yen.
There are two scenarios here. If both sides are hawkish, it cannot be simply assumed that the US-Japan interest rate differential will remain unchanged; it also depends on who is tougher and how the market originally expected it. If the Federal Reserve is dovish or neutral while the Bank of Japan is clearly hawkish, the US-Japan interest rate differential may narrow, and funds relying on such differentials could also shrink, adding pressure to risk assets. The timing is stuck around Friday’s close, and the weekend along with the meeting's buff is stacking up.
So my thought is simple: stay conservative, wait for the meeting to conclude, then decide whether to participate. Missing a segment of volatility for clearer information is also a choice.
Returning to Bitcoin's daily chart. The 365-day moving average we discussed last week was around $78,500; the bull-bear conversion band was around $76,000. I will continue to observe these two positions, but I won't consider them as unbreakable bottoms just because they've been marked.
Repeated retests around $80,000 instead remind me that cooling speculation does not equal a restored demand for new spot purchases. A healthy rise requires ongoing buying pressure and cannot rely solely on contract funds pulling prices back and forth.
If short-term trading is exhausting, the pace can be slowed down. Currently, I retain the possibility of an early-stage bull market, but that is still a judgment. Even in the early stages of a bull market, a long period of consolidation and structural repair may occur; it won’t take off at the flick of a switch.
While sorting out information these past few days, I noticed a clue about options settlement indicating an open interest scale of about $10 billion. This number and its specific terms still need to be verified; it cannot be directly understood as $10 billion will all close, and it certainly shouldn't be counted as confirmed buying pressure. Whether volatility amplifies around the settlement time is worthy of attention.
One guess I currently have is that large funds may be slowly accumulating in the $75,000-$80,000 range using limit orders. The reasoning comes from the sentiment in the market: there are many bearish views, yet the price is drifting down slowly, each time approaching $80,000 as if to break below, but then it rebounds. This tug of war was particularly evident yesterday.
However, repeated rebounds can only provide clues, not prove that the "main force has accumulated". If the subsequent spot buying pressure does not follow up, or if key structures deteriorate, the judgment that needs to be corrected should still be corrected; trading discipline cannot follow emotions.
Comparing the way liquidity is triggered makes it easier to understand what I'm observing. In a bearish trend center, the price repeatedly tests the high points yet fails to extend the rise; it resembles sweeping liquidity from previous highs. In a bullish trend center, the low points may be tested repeatedly, but the decline fails to extend, sweeping through previous lows and then recovering. For the current price movement, I tend to observe the latter scenario and still need to wait for subsequent price to verify.
Chip distribution is also worth observing. I tend to believe that some high-position holdings above $110,000 have already exited during the pullback. But saying "all have cut losses and left" is too absolute; one cannot solely determine everyone’s decisions based on the surface.
Holdings remaining between $80,000 and $100,000 may be more willing to wait than those chasing short-term movements. When BTC previously returned to $87,000, some were not far from their cost and might choose to continue holding; however, a rebound could also encounter selling pressure from those needing to exit their positions, and this pressure cannot be preemptively erased.
I am also willing to be a bit more patient, but faith cannot replace verification. Whether $75,000-$80,000 can form sustained support is a more tangible observation point moving forward. The cost distribution is not an ironclad bottom; behind the lines are people who can change their minds.
From another angle, I’m also watching Bitcoin's purchasing power relative to gold. According to the point-in-time data used for this discussion, by the end of August, one BTC could be exchanged for about 17 ounces of gold; by October 28, this had increased to about 20.23 ounces, marking an increase of about 19% between the two. This refers to the relative price change at that time, not the returns after today.
What attracts me more than short-term gains is the long-term structure. Looking back at the cycle lows of 2015, 2019, and 2022, the lows of BTC/Gold are characterized by gradual increases; the current low in 2026 can only be tentatively set. Whether this will be refreshed later needs to be observed. If relative lows can continue to rise, it indicates that it’s not just the dollar quotes that are changing, but also the purchasing power relative to other scarce assets.
I am also keeping an eye on gold. Geopolitical conflicts often bring about safe-haven demand, but if oil prices are pushed higher first, inflation expectations may also rise, and the market could worry about high interest rates lasting longer. These forces can pull against each other; we cannot just assume gold must rise based on the four words "geopolitical escalation."
Previously, I made several trades near the $4,000 mark and still consider it an observation point; the $3,850-$3,900 range is my stop-loss observation zone in this plan. If it reaches there, I need to re-evaluate whether the original judgment has failed rather than assuming this is absolute support.
Recently, the US stocks have been quite volatile, so I’ll also touch on stocks tokens like bStocks. Aside from individual stocks like Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla, ETF products like SPYB and QQQB are closer to my discussion on diversified allocation.
SPYB corresponds to the S&P 500 ETF, and the idea is to diversify holdings across a basket of large companies, rather than betting everything on "who's the next Nvidia." QQQB can serve as another observation option but is biased towards tech and growth sectors, with concentration and volatility needing to be considered together. Diversification can minimize the impact of wrongly betting on a single company; it will still fall when the overall market declines.
If one wants to maintain some individual stock positions in Nvidia or Tesla, my suggestion is to take out 5% from the original SPYB allocation for individual stocks rather than substituting several hot stocks to replace the entire stock exposure. This proportion is just an example; everyone can endure different levels of volatility.
It's also essential to understand the products themselves. The trading hours, minimum amounts, withdrawable networks, and whether they can be redeemed for the underlying stocks for stock tokens must be checked thoroughly. The token name corresponding to a stock or ETF does not mean that the rights of holding it are entirely the same as the stocks in a brokerage account.
The combination I mentioned is using SPYB to discuss equity exposure, PAXG for gold exposure, and then letting USDT and USDC take on part of the liquidity arrangements; whether to use wealth management needs to look at the duration and risk. It allows US stocks, gold, and dollar-linked assets to have a chance to be managed in a chain combination; however, stablecoins, custody platforms, and wealth management products each come with risks, and one cannot consider them as capital-preserving deposits just because they are convenient to operate.
Now let's discuss this hot topic of Agent ID in the past days. The timeline is filled with AI projects, each story newer than the last, but what I truly care about is whether there are real users continuously using and willing to pay behind the hype.
That night with Ptah, I saw a claim of an ID costing about $16 that later surged to $60, and also noticed approximately 20,000 ID wallets being registered on-chain. These observations and circulating information from that period should not be considered as verified transactions or profits, nor should these 20,000 wallets be directly counted as 20,000 real users.
The concept of Agent ID is interesting, but my actual experience at the time was mediocre. The buzz, large on-chain quantities, and whether the product has real buyers are three separate issues. Whether the extra wallets can be retained and whether real demand will arise later is worth tracking more than temporary pricing.
Although there are many ways to play in the crypto circle, once the profit sources are broken down, they are not so mysterious. One type is to earn from asset repricing: you buy when it's cheap, and later someone is willing to pay a higher price. New narratives that just emerge can easily inflate expectations; if demand doesn't catch up, those expectations will also retract rapidly.
The other type is to earn through differences in funding, information, and rules. This requires high tool, speed, capital, and execution capability; it's not enough just to see others making profits and trying to replicate it by mere imitation. If a project places too much budget and expectation on KOL hype, it may overlook whether the product itself has attractiveness.
In terms of rotation, I will pay attention to whether the related Robinhood knock-offs follow a rotation to BSC. This is just an observation direction, not a script where funds must come in order. Previously discussed PONS was around $0.25 during discussions and has now approached $0.30 by the time this image was included, with about $0.293 depicted. It’s merely a review of this price movement and cannot be turned into a reason for future increases.
In my allocation, I still prioritize mainstream assets. Other targets discussed earlier also need to continue monitoring; being placed on a list once does not mean they can be left alone.
In a place where stories of getting rich quickly are told every day, missing opportunities can easily get people excited. Watching prices soar, the mind automatically starts calculating, "What if I had bought back then," even arriving at imagined profits without earning a cent more in the account.
But if you miss this time, is there really no next time? The market will always have new opportunities. Accepting this enables you to focus your energy back on what you can change: understanding products, filling your toolbox, practicing execution, and knowing which opportunities are suitable for you.
Some attractive opportunities can be set aside willingly. Slowing down and enhancing your capabilities often takes you further than chasing every bit of excitement. Slow is fast, and the difficulty lies in its contradiction to our current impulses.
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