The downward movement today can be regarded as confirming the previous lower shadow lines, returning to a familiar rhythm. Currently, there is still room for further declines. Based on linear judgment, if it falls to the previous low near 76200, it can be considered a new round of market trend. Coupled with the previous round of news indicating the start of an interest rate hike cycle, this drop should be attributed to the impact of the midterm elections. Old Cui's previous estimate is around 74000 (a conservative estimate, not less). The trend in the crypto space has almost become clear, so Old Cui doesn't want to elaborate too much, as it might affect everyone's judgment. Let's talk about the current situation in the U.S. stock market, with the technology sector leading a sharp decline, seemingly announcing the end of an era. Individual companies, such as Google and Microsoft, including AOL, along with the downstream supply chains, are all crashing. It is important to distinguish that stock prices do not represent the demise of an industry. Old Cui believes the current trend can only be seen as clearing out the bubbles.

The prospects for AI development are still very broad. Old Cui thinks the limitation is mainly at the material level; current technology cannot support its powerful applications. Old Cui suggests a timeline of six months; if no breakthrough progress is made during the interest rate hike cycle, we might face a financial winter. Breakthrough progress at that time would also be hard to achieve historic highs, and the impact on the crypto space would be profound. Currently, from your positions, you can also see that the investment giants in the AI sector and the cryptocurrencies share similar whales behind them. The collapse of the tech innovation sector will force them to sell in order to redeem their companies. Coupled with the cycle's adjustments, it is not impossible for Bitcoin to hit new lows again; the probability of this is continuously increasing. Regarding oil prices, a short-term drop does not hold much significance, as the reason for the drop also stems from negotiations between Trump and Russia. Increased production can only alleviate the situation temporarily without making a significant impact, and inflation will continue.

Old Cui summarizes: the only factor that can influence the short-term trends in the crypto space is a midterm election, but this factor has been overly analyzed. From Old Cui's perspective, it has almost become a certainty, and there isn't much to discuss; it is also a negative news component. There aren't many concerns for contract users; more energy is being devoted to planning next year's progress, with a slightly pessimistic outlook on next year's growth. Currently, one unclear point is the progress of the tokenization bill, which was not successful during Trump's peak power, and it seems likely to become increasingly vague. If the bill cannot be passed in 2027, it will be a significant disadvantage for spot market users; there won't even be a strong bullish counterattack opportunity, and maintaining a year of range fluctuations may occur. Of course, the bottom space still appears shallow; there will eventually be a chance for it to pass. The two will be completely opposite; even if the market goes down, those shorting will regard the bill as the sword of Damocles, always hanging overhead.

Of course, up to now, Old Cui still holds a certain confidence in next year's outlook. This doesn't mean that the trends for next year have already been observed, as there are still two full months remaining this year, making predictions too early. Overall forecasts still need to be combined with the December news, including global growth data for the year and financial reports from major companies, and even need to consider the average crude oil prices for the full year in 2026, along with the performance of U.S. stocks and bonds. Only after these data are released can we outline the general contours for next year. Until then, our approach can still be maintained; even if some issues arise, we will have the chance to improve in early January 2027. For everyone, do not be too fearful; first, use contracts to build your own strength. When the price is right, Old Cui will also notify everyone to enter the market. The opinions mentioned in yesterday's circle of friends have also been given to you; from a short-term perspective, the 78000 position is not support; it is a resistance level where short selling can be attempted, and trying around 78000 is feasible, with profits set between 500-1000 being no problem. If it falls below 75000, it can happen at any time; as long as it is short, there will be no problem, so everyone can do it confidently.

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