Predicted short selling at 78,000, the results only arrived in the morning, and most people, according to Lao Cui's estimation, probably did not enter the market; today's focus has once again returned to the mid-term elections, with the Democratic Party still holding the lead. In the latest data, the probability of the Democratic Party sweeping both chambers has risen to 92%. If the Republican Party loses, President Trump's legislative leadership for the remainder of his term will be limited, and the Democratic Party may dominate related committees, leading to the delay of regulatory legislation such as the CLARITY Act and increasing scrutiny of the cryptocurrency industry. The most concerning issues are tightening, and the correlation between cryptocurrency prices and gold and U.S. stocks has been quite strong, with spot gold dropping below $3,900/ounce, a daily decrease of 1.19%. The bearish momentum is becoming stronger, and many friends want Lao Cui to provide a more detailed analysis; meanwhile, there is a need to talk about strategies regarding SOL and Ethereum.

The trend pressure has opened the downward trend of Bitcoin, and in such a market, small cryptocurrencies will face stronger pressure. Lao Cui had high hopes for SOL within the range from last year to this year. However, this is also a failed prediction. Lao Cui never avoids issues; the direct reflection is that during SOL's decline, Lao Cui's bottom fishing began below 200, and the average price was pulled to around 120. The last round of released spot was at the 70-80 mark, only accounting for about 20% of the total position, with an exit average price between 100-110. Due to the early spot profit exit, the final average price returned to between 130-140, considered a short-term level of spot trading. It is also necessary to release a certain position to short, and the exit timing has predicted this wave of opportunity. It was during the last interest rate hike that Lao Cui began to layout short positions; the contract planning, from everyone's perspective at that time, still had some missteps, as shorting Bitcoin also faced a five-thousand-point rise.

Of course, looking back at the layout at that time, it was definitely correct. The game played before the interest rate hike was nothing but a question of saving the AI industry; would the Americans rescue the market or abandon it? This question many friends cannot thoroughly understand, and Lao Cui hesitated for 2-3 months considering this issue. Ultimately, the Americans chose to raise interest rates, which effectively meant giving up this market. The current performance of the stock market and cryptocurrency circle reflects the risks brought by this choice, with the Americans having few options. Similarly, in prioritizing issues, under the negative trend, an industry abandonment is an inevitable choice; this iron rule also applies to the cryptocurrency space, with Bitcoin undoubtedly having stronger support compared to other cryptocurrencies, especially since the capital behind it is BlackRock. Therefore, listed cryptocurrencies can endure better than unlisted ones, while the lowest tier of cryptocurrencies is the small cryptocurrencies and altcoins from earlier periods.

SOL and Ethereum were both strongly recommended by Lao Cui during the last bull market stage, and even at the tail end of the bull market, they were still being actively recommended. At above 200 for SOL, Lao Cui was still encouraging everyone to buy, and as everyone can see, during the peak period, there was no selling, and only at the second touch of the high of 250 did everyone exit. The failed layout was the intervention below 200, leading to an overly heavy position. Ethereum's performance has been extremely disappointing, with a buy-in cost of 2,000-2,600 that has not doubled. Lao Cui measures the situation of an investment based on return rates; from the cryptocurrencies recommended in the last bull market - Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL, two realized more gains, with at least historic new highs. In terms of return rate, Ethereum has much larger issues, closely related to Vitalik, with prices running above 2,500 and insane selling. Therefore, Lao Cui's definition of Ethereum will limit it to contract short-term operations, with spot purchases being paused for a while.

Users who have long followed Lao Cui will find that since the bull market, this cryptocurrency has rarely been mentioned. The inclination to invest in SOL is also because we have already seen the upper limit for Ethereum; similarly, for listed cryptocurrencies and stablecoin selection mechanisms, they cannot create history. Lao Cui does not know what other positive news can stimulate this cryptocurrency to reach new highs? Future hopes may only rely on SOL's trend. As for advantages, too much has already been explained, so today let's not discuss the advantages of the cryptocurrencies. Just talking about prices, these two cryptocurrencies will also drop with the decline of the financial sector. Their depth will definitely be deeper, even reaching new lows; the capital behind them is different, and the issues visible to everyone will be very intuitive. Ethereum and SOL, these two well-established small cryptocurrencies, indeed have too many retail investors; the appearance of such opportunities will definitely lead to a purge. To reach higher positions, there will surely be market conditions that frighten retail investors.

Lao Cui summarizes: due to length restrictions, Lao Cui does not want to write too much, just to briefly chat. One new low for SOL in the last two years is 60, and another for Ethereum is 1500; with the CLARITY Act postponed, temporarily not discussing the scrutiny on the cryptocurrency circle and in line with the rate hike cycle. These two cryptocurrencies will surely hit new lows, while Bitcoin is harder to discuss; it depends on the backing capacity of the major investors. Lao Cui estimates it is difficult to see new lows; even if there are new lows, they will mostly appear in the form of spikes. It certainly cannot harm their interests, especially for invested assets like pensions. The commonality in the cryptocurrency circle is that short selling can currently be done; Ethereum may yield more returns, whereas Lao Cui does not recommend everyone to engage in contracts for SOL. Lao Cui's response will involve using contract profits from Bitcoin and Ethereum to conduct dollar-cost averaging in SOL; as soon as the price reaches 60-80, Lao Cui will consider selling, at least to re-acquire the portion of profits previously exited while waiting. The cryptocurrency circle has not disappeared; as long as the CLARITY Act can pass, a bull market will surely emerge, and before that, it is best for everyone to maintain a certain amount of chips and wait for the right timing to come.

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