BTC has once again surpassed $80,000, with its market capitalization share rising to 58.55%.
On the morning of November 5, Bitcoin rebounded from a 24-hour low of $75,736 to $81,196, marking a maximum rebound of approximately 7.2%. As of 3 PM, the BTC price remained around $80,000, with a circulating market capitalization of approximately $1.61 trillion, and a trading volume of $48.2 billion in the past 24 hours.
Meanwhile, among the top 100 cryptocurrency assets, 84 showed an increase, indicating a significant recovery in market sentiment.
However, the timing of this rebound is also quite special. With the results of the U.S. midterm elections out, the Democratic Party secured both houses of Congress, which may limit Trump's subsequent efforts to push forward crypto policies.
Political news did not put continued pressure on the market; instead, BTC rebounded after a brief decline. Is this rebound due to capital re-entering, or is it merely short-term short-covering?
1. BTC rebound: short-covering or capital inflow?
From the price performance, both BTC and ETH have shown a noticeable rebound, but data from the futures market deserves attention.
Currently, the open interest in BTC futures is about $20.54 billion, a decrease of 6.30% in 24 hours; the open interest in ETH futures has decreased by 22.29%. During the same period, the long-short ratio dropped from 2.92 to 1.53, and the Fear & Greed Index rebounded from 34 to 50.
Despite rising prices, open interest is decreasing, indicating that this rebound may partly come from short-covering and leveraging clean-up. While market sentiment has improved, whether new leveraged capital will truly take over still requires further observation.
Looking at BTC's market capitalization share, it has risen to 58.55%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points in 24 hours.
This indicates that Bitcoin is outperforming other cryptocurrency assets, and market preferences remain concentrated on BTC. However, an increase in market capitalization share does not equate to net capital inflow; it could also be due to weaker price increases in other tokens.
From a short-term perspective, $81,196 is the recent peak of this rebound, while $80,000 is a price area that requires observation.
Technical analyst Yi Lihua believes that if BTC effectively breaks through $82,600, it may further test the resistance level near $86,000. This is a personal technical judgment, and whether it can be realized still depends on subsequent buying pressure.
2. Why didn't Trump's election defeat suppress BTC?
Trump has always been an important supporter of the crypto industry. Over the past year, the U.S. government has promoted policies like strategic Bitcoin reserves and the GENIUS Act, bringing many favorable expectations for the crypto industry.
Therefore, after the Democratic Party takes both houses of Congress, the market naturally worries about the impact on future crypto legislation, especially concerning the regulatory division between the SEC and CFTC with the CLARITY Act.
However, the election results do not mean that U.S. crypto policy will immediately reverse.
On one hand, already enacted laws and administrative policies do not automatically become invalid due to election results; on the other hand, the development of the U.S. crypto industry does not rely entirely on Trump. The previous approval of spot BTC ETFs and continuous entry of institutions indicate that market demand and institutional development have already begun.
The impact of this election is more reflected in the uncertainty of future policy advancement.
From market performance, BTC first fell and then rose after the election results were announced, which also indicates that investors are reassessing political risks. Macroeconomic factors such as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will also affect the performance of risk assets, and this round of rebound cannot be simply attributed to any single political message.
3. Three signals to focus on for BTC moving forward
A short-term rebound has occurred, but whether it can form a more sustained upward trend will require observation of subsequent capital performance.
1. Ability to break through key price areas
$81,196 is the recent peak of the rebound, while $82,600 is the next technical level worth watching. If BTC can break through with volume, the short-term trend may further improve.
2. Whether spot capital continues to enter
Contract liquidations can drive prices to rebound quickly, but to sustain the rally, support from spot buying is still needed. ETF fund flows and spot trading volume are worth continuous monitoring.
3. Can BTC's rise drive other assets?
Currently, BTC's market capitalization share has risen to 58.55%, indicating that the market still prefers Bitcoin. If altcoins can gradually follow suit, then the market's risk appetite can be seen as improving more broadly.
This round of rebound is yet to conclude whether it is a short-term emotional correction or the start of a new uptrend. Compared to simply chasing prices, observing whether spot capital can continue to follow may be more valuable for reference.
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Risk warning: Crypto asset prices are highly volatile, and futures trading carries leverage and liquidation risks; the referenced annual yield of financial products does not guarantee returns, please read the product rules carefully before participating. This article is for market information analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
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