The chief analyst of Huobi HTX, Cloud, recently released an annual review report, summarizing the trends and long-term support and resistance levels of the top ten representative cryptocurrencies over the past year, aiming to help users see clearly the positions of various assets in a differentiated market. The following is the full report.
Introduction: A Three-Phase Year, A Differentiated River
The cryptocurrency market in the past year was not a simple switch between bull and bear markets, but a complete three-phase decline—repair—secondary drop. We selected the most representative assets from ten tracks—value storage (BTC), smart contract L1 (ETH, SOL), exchange platform tokens (BNB), cross-border payment (XRP), meme culture (DOGE), oracle (LINK), DeFi derivatives (HYPE), privacy (ZEC), AI computing networks (TAO)—based on Huobi HTX USDT perpetual contract daily data, retracing the complete trend over 367 days from November 4, 2025, to November 5, 2026. It is particularly noted that all "highest points" and "lowest points" in this article refer to the data within this year's window. Historical extremes occurring outside the window (e.g., BTC recorded a historical high of $126,199.6 on October 6, 2025) will be separately indicated; long-term Fibonacci calculations are based on the highs and lows of the year.
The table below shows the selection criteria and rationale for the representative coins of the ten tracks; each chapter title later will indicate the corresponding track:
Let’s start with the conclusions. The first phase was the peak region from early October to early November 2025: BTC reached the high of $126,199.6 on October 6, 2025 (also its historical peak, which is outside the one-year window). After entering the window, on November 4, it recorded the highest point in the window at $107,736; mainstream assets like ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE also peaked almost simultaneously in the same month. The second phase was the deep bear market in the first half of 2026: BTC reached a one-year low of $57,761 on July 1, 2026, with a maximum pullback of 44.4%; the lows of ETH, SOL, LINK, and TAO densely occurred in February and June 2026, with maximum pullbacks generally between 55%—65%. The third phase includes the recovery in the third quarter and the secondary drop in October-November: most assets rebounded over 50% in Q3 before weakening again, giving back a considerable portion of the recovery.
Differentiation is the most profound characteristic of this year. Among the ten coins, only two had positive returns: HYPE rose 115.7%, and ZEC rose 232.0%—the former represents the real cash flow of decentralized derivatives, while the latter signifies a strong return of the privacy narrative; the weakest, DOGE, fell 52.9% over the year, only 14% above its one-year low. The positions have changed significantly in the past two days: BTC's current price of $80,700 has recaptured the 61.8% retracement level (at $76,852) and is approaching the 50% level ($82,749); BNB's current price of $720 is exactly at the 61.8% level ($721)—this is another example of an accurate long-term landing after BTC; LINK has also reclaimed the 61.8% level, TAO rebounded from the 78.6% level (at $219.5) by about 8%, XRP is reacting to the 78.6% level ($1.33), with only DOGE still deeply trapped below the 78.6% level. Long-term points are not metaphysics; they record the market's pricing memory of an entire interval—when prices are exactly stationed at these levels, the disagreements between bulls and bears are just condensed here.
1. BTC (Value Storage): Precisely Landing on the 61.8% Level, the Guiding Star of Mainstream Coins
Trend Review. BTC has gone through a complete three-phase script over the past year: reaching the highest point of $107,736 on November 4, 2025, it fell below $83,000 in late November, fluctuated widely between $87,000 and $93,000 from December to January; in the second quarter of 2026, it accelerated downward and recorded a one-year low of $57,761 on July 1, with a maximum retreat of 44.4%; after rebounding above $80,000 in Q3, it fell again to $76,511 during the October-November market downturn, on November 4, it regained the $80,000 mark, currently reported at $80,693, with a total annual decline narrowing to 21.8%, and currently 25.1% from the window high and 39.7% from the low. Among the ten coins, BTC has the shallowest annual decline and maximum pullback; it remains the main riverbed—relative strength of all other assets should be measured against BTC.
Long-term points. Calculating based on the one-year window highs and lows of $107,736—$57,761, BTC accurately backtested the 61.8% retracement level of $76,852 on November 4 before regaining it, currently reported at $80,693, already above the 61.8% level and about 2.5% from the 50% retracement level of $82,749. Support below is sequentially at the reclaimed 61.8% level of $76,852 and the 78.6% retracement level of $68,456; resistance above is at the 50% retracement level of $82,749 and the 38.2% retracement level of $88,645. A higher reference level is the historical high of $126,199.6 on October 6, 2025: if calculated with this high and the low of $57,761, the 50% retracement is about $91,980, the 61.8% retracement is about $83,905, and the 78.6% retracement is about $72,387. The two approaches mutually validate—$82,700—$83,900 is the upper pressure zone (the 50% level of the window approach overlaps with the 61.8% level of the ATH approach), and an effective breakout would advance the repair trend into the main rising segment; below, if $76,852 turns back to support, a failure would look towards $72,400 and $68,500, which is also a dense cost area near the gap start in the September repair trend.
Future Influencing Factors. The first is ETF fund flows: since 2026, spot ETFs have repeatedly shown weekly net outflows (recently a net outflow of $203 million); institutional marginal funds have been marginal price setters over the past two years, and whether they shift will determine if the box can break out upwards. The second is the macro interest rate path: changes in the bets on whether the Fed will raise rates in December directly affect risk preferences, and every point of non-farm and inflation data will be magnified. The third is the on-chain structure: supply of long-term holders, exchange balance, miner income, and other on-chain indicators often lead prices to bottom in later stages of deep bears; Q3 repairs have verified this once, and whether another signal will be given in the secondary drop is worth tracking. The fourth is the behavior of treasury companies: the increase or decrease disclosures of publicly listed treasury companies have become independent sources of short-term volatility in BTC.
2. ETH (Smart Contract L1): Falling Back Below the 61.8% Level, Waiting for Application Layer Cash Flow
Trend Review. ETH almost peaked simultaneously with BTC, recording a one-year window high of $3,682 on November 4, 2025, but the downward slope was significantly steeper: it recorded a one-year low of $1,504 on June 6, 2026, with a maximum retreat of 55.7%, deeper than BTC's 44.4%; after a Q3 repair that briefly broke the 50% retracement level, it fell again in October-November, rebounding on November 4 with the market, currently reported at $2,431, with a total annual decline narrowing to 30.7%, currently 34.0% from the window high and 61.5% from the low. The depth of the pullback from the high point is about 9 percentage points deeper than BTC, reflecting that the market's valuation of its application layer cash flow is still contracting this year.
Long-term points. Based on the interval of $3,682—$1,504, the 61.8% retracement level for ETH is at $2,337, and the current price of $2,431 has regained that level, approaching the 50% level of $2,594; $2,337 has turned from resistance to support, serving as a boundary between bulls and bears in the short term. Below, support is sequentially at the 61.8% level of $2,337, the 78.6% retracement level of $1,971, and the one-year low of $1,504; above, resistance is at the 50% level of $2,594 and the 38.2% level of $2,851. Stabilizing above $2,337, the next target is $2,594; if it fails again, it indicates this round of repair is still mainly driven by short positions.
Future Influencing Factors. The first is the diversion of mainnet fees by L2: L2 absorbs trading activities, decreasing mainnet burns, and the continued weakening of ETH's deflation narrative is the core reason for valuation contraction. The second is the structure of staking and ETFs: the rise in staking ETFs and the institutional staking ratio will lock in the circulating supply, which is a potential positive variable. The third is the share of RWA and stablecoin settlement: Ethereum remains the preferred settlement layer for institutional tokenization. If RWA scales expand rapidly, fees and burns will return. The fourth is the pacing of technology upgrades: expectations surrounding capacity and consensus layer upgrades over the next year will periodically change market pricing.
3. SOL (High Performance L1): Caught Between 61.8% and 78.6% High Beta
Trend Review. SOL recorded a one-year window high of $171.74 on November 11, 2025, which was slightly later than most mainstream coins; it recorded a one-year low of $60.14 on June 6, 2026, with a maximum retreat of 62.5%, the deepest among L1s; after a Q3 repair, it again fell below $84 in the October-November period, subsequently rebounding in two days, currently reported at $96.29, with a total annual decline of 40.3%, currently 43.9% from the window high and 60.1% from the low. As a high Beta asset, SOL’s volatility has always been greater than BTC—greater elasticity when rising and deeper drops when falling, this year serves as a complete annotation.
Long-term points. Based on the interval of $171.74—$60.14, SOL's current price of $96.29 remains between the 61.8% retracement level of $102.77 and the 78.6% retracement level of $84.03, having rebounded about 15% from the 78.6% low, but still 6.7% away from the 61.8% level. Support below is sequentially at the 78.6% level of $84.03 and the one-year low of $60.14; above, resistance is at the 61.8% level of $102.77, the 50% level of $115.94, and the 38.2% level of $129.11. $84 has withstood the second bottom testing, serving as the last line of defense for bulls; regaining $102.8 would reopen repair space.
Future Influencing Factors. The first is the performance of validator clients: the advancement of new-generation clients like Firedancer determines network stability and throughput limits and is a prerequisite for institutional participation. The second is on-chain trading activity: trading volume of MEME and DEX is the main source of SOL fees, and its activity cycles directly reflect the elasticity of price. The third is the progress of spot ETFs: the approval and funding inflow pace of the U.S. SOL spot ETF is the most significant incremental variable in 2026. The fourth is the narrative of competition with ETH: in the L1 arms race, where developers and liquidity migrate affects long-term valuation anchors.
4. BNB (Exchange Platform Token): The Mainstream Coin with the Shallowest Drop and the Cash Flow Resilience of Platform Tokens
Trend Review. BNB recorded a one-year window high of $1,018 on November 10, 2025, and on July 1, 2026, recorded a one-year low of $537.5 on the same day as BTC, with a maximum retreat of 45.1%; after a Q3 repair, it fell back in October-November, then rebounded with the market, currently reported at $720, with a total annual decline of 24.2%, currently 29.3% from the window high and 33.9% from the low. Among the ten coins, BNB's one-year decline and maximum retreat are second only to BTC, with significantly better resilience than other public chain assets—the platform token has real, stable exchange cash flow backing it, demonstrating defensive attributes during liquidity contraction periods.
Long-term points. Based on the interval of $1,018—$537.5, BNB's 78.6% retracement level is at $640, and the current price of $720 is not only above the 78.6% level but also right at the edge of the 61.8% retracement level of $721.13—this is another instance of accurate long-term landing after BTC, better positioned than XRP and DOGE. Support below is sequentially at the 78.6% level of $640 and the one-year low of $537.5; above, resistance is at the 50% level of $778 and the 38.2% level of $835. The gain or loss of $721 is the first hurdle in the short term: regaining confirms the recovery at the 61.8% level, above $778 enters the main rising segment of the repair trend.
Future Influencing Factors. The first is the prosperity of exchange business: spot and contract trading volumes and new user growth directly determine platform income and the intensity of buyback and burn, with quarterly burn amounts being the most concrete pricing anchor. The second is the on-chain ecology: the DEX trading volume on BNB Chain and the activity of the MEME ecosystem determine on-chain demand. The third is the regulatory environment: the compliance costs and licensing progress faced by leading exchanges affect risk premiums. The fourth is marginal changes in the burn mechanism: if the burn rhythm or rules are adjusted, it will directly change the supply curve.
5. XRP (Cross-Border Payment): Breaking Below the 78.6% Level, The Latecomer with the Latest Low
Trend Review. XRP recorded a one-year window high of $2.58 on November 11, 2025; unlike most assets, its one-year low did not occur in mid-2026 but rather on August 15 at $0.984—its second dip lagging behind mainstream coins by two months, with a maximum retreat of 60.4%; after a Q3 rebound above $1.6, it weakened again, rebounding with the market on November 4, currently reported at $1.31, with a total annual decline of 42.6%, currently 49.3% from the window high and 33.0% from the low. The late appearance of the low means XRP's clearing pace is independent of the general market, driven more by its own events than by following BTC.
Long-term points. Based on the interval of $2.58—$0.984, XRP's 78.6% retracement level is at $1.33, and the current price of $1.31 is reacting to that level—it's less than 2% away from reclaiming it, but it remains one of the weakest assets among the ten coins. Support below is sequentially at the short-term cost area of $1.27 and the one-year low of $0.984; above, resistance is at the 78.6% level of $1.33, the 61.8% level of $1.59, the 50% level of $1.78, and the 38.2% level of $1.97. The gain or loss of $1.33 is the boundary in the short term: reclaiming confirms the start of recovery; the $1 round number and the one-year low constitute a dual psychological defense.
Future Influencing Factors. The first is the implementation of cross-border payments: the scale of settlement cooperation with traditional banks and the share of stablecoins in cross-border channels determine its speed of transition from narrative asset to cash flow asset. The second is the ETF progress: the approval and subsequent funding inflow of the XRP spot ETF is the most direct event variable in 2026. The third is institutional allocation after regulatory dust settles: the release rhythm of compliance dividends after the conclusion of litigation is still slowly materializing. The fourth is the competitive relationship with stablecoins: the cross-border payment market is also being eroded by stablecoins; XRP needs to prove itself faster and cheaper than dollar-pegged stablecoins.
6. DOGE (Meme Culture): Just a Step Away from the One-Year Low, The Clearing Sample of Memes
Trend Review. DOGE recorded a one-year window high of $0.186 on November 11, 2025, and a one-year low of $0.0677 on August 2, 2026, with a maximum retreat of 61.4%; currently reported at $0.0772, with a total annual decline of 52.9%, still the weakest among the ten coins—currently 58.5% from the window high and 14.1% from the low. In the past two days, it has rebounded about 14% from the low, but is still almost running at the one-year low, with the degree of clearing being the deepest among the ten coins. Meme assets lack a cash flow anchor, showing the most thorough pricing contraction among all assets during liquidity contraction periods, and DOGE serves as a complete sample of this logic.
Long-term points. Based on the interval of $0.186—$0.0677, DOGE's 78.6% retracement level is at $0.090, which has clearly fallen below; the 61.8% level at $0.11, the 50% level at $0.13, and the 38.2% level at $0.14 constitute successive layers of pressure above the current price. The only remaining support below is the one-year low of $0.0677; below, it leads to an old cost area before 2024. If $0.0677 is lost, it will technically open up new downward space; on the contrary, if it completes a double bottom here, the sentiment repair in the meme track will lead with DOGE.
Future Influencing Factors. The first is the liquidity environment: meme assets are the most sensitive to global liquidity and risk preferences; every change in the Fed’s rate hike rhythm directly affects their valuation, which is DOGE’s lifeline. The second is the payment narrative on social platforms: the payment feature progress on X platform and the cyclical return of celebrity effects are unique catalytic paths for DOGE. The third is the funding structure of the track: the incremental funding in the MEME track comes from retail investors’ risk preferences, and changes in on-chain active addresses and holding concentration are leading indicators. The fourth is the substitution effect: new generations of meme assets continue to divert existing attention; DOGE, as an old meme, needs to prove its continued monetization capability for its cultural assets.
7. LINK (Oracle): Holding on to the 78.6% Level, the Invisible Water Bearer of Tokenization
Trend Review. LINK recorded a one-year window high of $16.78 on November 11, 2025, and a one-year low of $7.00 on June 6, 2026, with a maximum retreat of 55.3%; after a Q3 repair, it fell back to around $10 in October-November, rebounding alongside the market on November 4, currently reported at $11.49, with a total annual decline of 23.9%, currently 31.5% from the window high and 64.1% from the low. Its retreat depth lies between BTC/BNB and ETH/SOL, and the one-year low synchronously occurred in early June with ETH and SOL, indicating a clearing pace similar to mainstream coins.
Long-term points. Based on the interval of $16.78—$7.00, LINK's 78.6% retracement level is at $9.09, and the current price of $11.49 has regained the 61.8% level of $10.74, approaching the 50% level of $11.89; $10.74 has turned from resistance to support. Below, support is sequentially at the 61.8% level of $10.74, the 78.6% level of $9.09, and the one-year low of $7.00; above, resistance is at the 50% level of $11.89 and the 38.2% level of $13.04. Stabilizing above $11.89 would lead the repair trend into the main rising segment; if it fails again at $10.74, it would signify that this round of rebound is still driven by event impulses.
Future Influencing Factors. The first is the demand for infrastructure for RWA and bank tokenization: LINK, as a leading oracle, is a necessary service provider in the asset on-chain process, and the pilot progress with Swift, DTCC, and several global banks is the core support for long-term valuation. The second is the adoption of the CCIP cross-chain protocol: growth in institutional cross-chain settlement volume will translate into real revenue. The third is the advancement of the staking economy: after staking is launched, LINK begins to have yield properties, changing its purely narrative valuation. The fourth is the competitive landscape: the market shares of other oracles and emerging cross-chain solutions, which are marginal variables that need to be continuously tracked.
8. HYPE (DeFi Derivatives): The Only Two Positive Returns Among the Ten Coins, Cash Flow Premium of Derivative DEX
Trend Review. HYPE is one of the two positive return assets among the ten coins: its one-year low occurred at $20.5 on January 21, 2026, and thereafter followed an independent trend, reaching a one-year high of $98.1 on September 23, currently reported at $84.4, with a total annual increase of 115.7%, currently 13.9% from the high and 312% from the low. Against the backdrop of an overall deep bear market, HYPE has achieved a doubling trend and only a little shy of its high—this extreme divergence from the general market prices the sustained erosion of decentralized perpetual exchanges on centralized exchange volume shares and the buyback mechanism driven by real platform revenue.
Long-term points. Since both the high and low points of HYPE occurred this year (January low, September high), its Fibonacci framework differs from mainstream coins that peaked a year ago, with the calculation interval being $98.1—$20.5: the 38.2% retracement is at $68.46, the 50% level is at $59.31, and the 61.8% retracement is at $50.15. The current price of $84.4 is near the upper edge of the range, with shallow retracement. The first support below is the 38.2% level of $68.46, followed by the 50% level of $59.31; the upper pressure is the one-year high of $98.1. For an asset that is still creating new highs, whether it breaks through the previous high is the only technical criterion for trend continuation.
Future Influencing Factors. The first is the competition for market shares of perpetual DEX: the transaction volume and margin growth rate of Hyperliquid determine the sustainability of its cash flow premium. The second is the buyback and distribution mechanism: the rhythm of platform income used for buybacks directly constitutes buying power. The third is ecology airdrops and incentive cycles: expectations for ecosystem airdrops attract existing funds to settle, forming a leveraged growth flywheel, and it is also a potential point of deleveraging risk. The fourth is regulatory edges: the compliance scrutiny facing decentralized derivatives is heating up, and the response capabilities of leading platforms determine valuation discounts.
9. ZEC (Privacy Track): The King of Privacy Doubling in a Year, Crowded Trading Under High Volatility
Trend Review. ZEC is the strongest performing asset among the ten coins: after recording a one-year low of $184.63 on February 6, 2026, it began a main rise, achieving a one-year high of $1,691 on September 27, with a maximum increase of over eight times, currently reported at $1,313, with a total annual increase of 232.0%, currently 22.3% from the high and 611% from the low. It should be noted that this violent rise was not without turbulence—its largest pullback of 72.1% occurred mostly in the deep washout during the surge. The privacy narrative shifted from being suppressed by regulation in an unpopular track to becoming a market mainstream, with ZEC completing a textbook-level repricing.
Long-term points. Based on the interval of $1,691—$184.63, ZEC's 38.2% retracement level is at $1,115.57, and the current price of $1,313 is being sustained above this level; the 50% level is at $937.82, and the 61.8% level is at $760.06, providing a deeper support band; the upper resistance is at the one-year high of $1,691. For an asset that has more than doubled in a year, losing the 38.2% level would mean a phase-ending for the main upward trend, whereby the 50% level of $938 would become a genuine test for bulls.
Future Influencing Factors. The first is the sustainability of the privacy narrative and regulatory attitudes: every step that loosens or tightens the channels for privacy coins in the compliant market (exchange listings, fiat in and out) directly impacts prices. The second is the funding structure: soaring assets often accompany high leverage and crowded positions; funding rates and the extreme values of perpetual open interest are warning signals for pullbacks. The third is technological adoption: the usage rate of shielded pools and real growth in demand for transfer privacy will determine the fundamental quality beyond the narrative. The fourth is the competitive landscape: other privacy solutions and emerging anonymous assets could preemptively exhaust the enthusiasm for the track.
10. TAO (AI×Crypto): Precisely Landing on the 78.6% Level, The Second Bottoming of AI Narrative
Trend Review. TAO recorded a one-year window high of $502.15 on November 4, 2025, on the same day as BTC, and a one-year low of $142.54 on February 6, 2026, with a maximum retreat of 64.2%; after Q3 repair, it fell back to near the 78.6% retracement level in October-November, then precisely rebounded in two days, currently reported at $236.51, with a total annual decline of 41.9%, currently 52.9% from the window high and 65.9% from the low. AI×Crypto was once one of the most crowded narratives in 2025, and this year’s substantial pullback is precisely a clearing of that crowding—but unlike DOGE, TAO's underlying still has a continuously operating computing network and subnet economy generating real activities.
Long-term points. Based on the interval of $502.15—$142.54, TAO's 78.6% retracement level is at $219.5, with the price bouncing precisely back to $236.51 from that level from November 3 to 4, rising about 8% in two days—$219.5 has been validated as the first wave of repair, confirming the effectiveness of this position. Below, support is sequentially at the 78.6% level of $219.5 and the one-year low of $142.54; above, resistance is at the 61.8% level of $279.91, the 50% level of $322.34, and the 38.2% level of $364.78. $219.5 transitions from a dividing line to support; if lost, focus will shift to the lower price line; if above $279.91 is achieved, it confirms the second round of the AI narrative has started with this base.
Future Influencing Factors. The first is the realization of dTAO and subnet economies: adjustments to the subnet token mechanism have changed TAO’s supply and value capture logic, and its effects are being verified by the market each season. The second is real AI demand: the production of inference and training services in the subnet that can be externally procured is the only channel from narrative to cash flow. The third is the mapping of AI mainline: capital expenditure cycles of centralized AI giants and progress of open-source models will also relay to the valuation of decentralized computing networks. The fourth is the balance of emissions and demand: TAO is continuously issued based on blocks; if the demand side growth does not keep up with the issuance, it will face structural selling pressure in the long run.
Conclusion: Replace Emotions with Discipline on Points, Use Differentiation to Find Exceptions
Placing the ten coins on the same long-term map, the conclusions are clear: BTC has regained the 61.8% retracement level with volume and is approaching the 50% level; BNB is precisely at the 61.8% level; TAO has rebounded approximately 8% from the 78.6% level; LINK is approaching the 50% level after reclaiming the 61.8% level; SOL remains stuck between the 61.8% and 78.6% narrow gaps; XRP is reacting around the 78.6% level; DOGE still sits below it; while HYPE and ZEC, the two positive return assets, continue to operate at their respective upper edges. The position itself does not constitute a prediction, but it provides a set of disciplines: once support and resistance are clearly defined, adding positions, stopping losses, and confirming breakouts all have executable coordinates without relying on directional beliefs.
The three main lines for the coming year are worth repeated verification. The first is liquidity: the Fed's decision on whether to raise rates in December and the subsequent path of rates determine the valuation center of all risk assets, especially the survival of cash-flow-less assets like DOGE. The second is cash flow: this year the market completed polling with real money—HYPE, with real income, shines; purely narrative assets generally halved, and "pricing based on returns rather than narratives" will continue to deepen in 2026. The third is structural events: progress with XRP and SOL’s ETFs, the regulatory margins for the privacy track, the bank-level implementation of RWA infrastructure—each could enable individual assets to break away from the general market and develop independent trends. Long-term points tell us where we are, while these three main lines indicate where we might head.
Risk Warning: The data in this article comes from Huobi HTX USDT perpetual contract daily data, as of November 5, 2026; "highest point" and "lowest point" refer to data within the one-year window from November 4, 2025, to November 5, 2026 (the historical high of $126,199.6 for BTC on October 6, 2025, is outside the window and has been separately noted); support and resistance points are based on Fibonacci retracement calculations from the one-year high and low interval, for technical reference only, and do not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency asset prices are highly volatile; please carefully assess your own risk tolerance.
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