The major American tech stocks rose collectively, but Tesla and SpaceX under Elon Musk followed a contrary trend.

On November 4th, US Eastern Time, the results of the midterm elections in the United States gradually became clear, and the three major US stock indices closed higher collectively. According to BiyaPay market data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 3.03%, the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.58%, and the Nasdaq Index rose by 1.44%.

However, Tesla (TSLA) closed at $385.19, down 3.34%; SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $135.92, down 3.81%. As of 7:59 PM that evening, some after-hours market data indicated that the quotes for both companies further fell to $381.30 and $134.01, respectively.

While the overall US stock market was rising, the stocks of Musk's two companies faced pressure. This divergence prompted the market to begin reassessing a question: What changes will Elon Musk's business landscape face after the US midterm elections?

Previously, Musk actively participated in American political activities and supported Republican candidates. With the Democratic Party making significant gains in this election and the power dynamics in Congress changing, the market began to focus on potential new variables in areas like government regulation, AI data center construction, and corporate project approvals.

However, simply attributing this drop to "Musk's political bets failing" is not comprehensive. What is truly worth analyzing is whether changes in the political environment will affect business operations, and whether the AI businesses of Tesla and SpaceX, which have been highly anticipated by the market, can be transformed into revenue and cash flow as expected.

Why did Tesla and SpaceX lag behind while US stocks surged?

From the market performance on November 4th, the rise of the US stock market does not mean all tech companies will simultaneously strengthen.

That day, major tech platforms and some consumer and defensive stocks performed relatively well, but data center-related companies and certain tech supply chain firms faced varying degrees of pressure. Funds did not simply buy into the entire tech sector but instead reassessed growth expectations and policy risks for different companies.

The weaker performance of Tesla and SpaceX that day is also related to this market sentiment.

Although the two companies are involved in electric vehicles, commercial spaceflight, and satellite internet, they have increasingly been linked to AI infrastructure and Musk's overall business strategy in recent years.

Tesla is advancing its autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and humanoid robot businesses; SpaceX continues to expand its Starlink network, commercial spaceflight, and AI computing infrastructure investments. These businesses have long-term growth potential but also require ongoing capital investment; actual development depends on technological progress, project approvals, and commercialization speed.

Therefore, the market is concerned not only about the current revenue and profit of the two companies but also whether future growth can be fulfilled. When investors start to worry about regulatory environment changes, project progression slowing, or increased capital expenditure, the company's valuation may come under pressure ahead of time.

This also means that the decline on November 4th was more like a market reassessment of future growth expectations and does not indicate a fundamental reversal in the fundamentals of the two companies.

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The real test for Tesla is when its AI business can start showing profits

The logic behind Tesla's stock price is no longer just traditional car sales.

The automotive business remains an important foundation for the company's operations, but autonomous driving, Robotaxi, Optimus humanoid robots, and energy businesses have become parts that cannot be overlooked when discussing its long-term valuation.

The issue lies in that the commercialization progress and profit models of these businesses are not entirely the same.

The automotive business has relatively clear delivery volumes, sales prices, gross margins, and inventory data; investors can gauge the operational situation through quarterly financial reports. However, the autonomous driving and robotics businesses still require more technological validation, practical applications, and scaled operational data.

Taking Robotaxi as an example, the market is focused not only on whether vehicles can achieve autonomous driving but also on service range, operational efficiency, accident liability, maintenance costs, and user payment willingness. Even if technology makes progress, it will take time to generate stable income.

The same is true for the Optimus robot. Product showcases and technical demonstrations may enhance market attention, but whether it can ultimately achieve commercialization in manufacturing, logistics, and other scenarios will depend on mass production capacity, unit costs, and actual customer demand.

Another factor that cannot be ignored is capital expenditure.

Tesla previously estimated in its quarterly documents that capital expenditure in 2026 will exceed $20 billion, with funds allocated for computing infrastructure, data centers, production facilities, and research and development. This indicates that the company is investing more resources in AI and automation businesses but also means investors need to pay attention to the time lag between investment and returns.

If the commercialization progress of new businesses aligns with expectations, continued investment may open new growth opportunities for the company; if technological validation or market expansion lags behind expectations, capital expenditures could increase funding pressure for some time.

Therefore, moving forward, observation of Tesla should not just focus on whether the stock price rebounds, but also track automotive delivery, gross margins, energy business performance, the progress of autonomous driving commercialization, and changes in capital expenditure.

SpaceX’s AI story is significant, but data center expansion also needs to calculate the funding costs

Compared to Tesla, SpaceX has a more diversified business structure.

Commercial spaceflight and launch services are its core businesses, while the Starlink satellite internet offers continuously growing connectivity services. At the same time, the company is expanding investments in AI-related businesses and computing infrastructure, attempting to integrate the satellite network, computing power, and AI services.

From the latest performance, SpaceX’s growth is not merely a figment of the market's imagination.

According to Reuters reporting on the company’s third-quarter performance, SpaceX's revenue for Q3 reached approximately $14.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 161%, exceeding analyst expectations; net profit was about $4.4 billion. The company’s revenue growth was primarily driven by the expansion of AI business and growth in Starlink connectivity services.

From a business structure perspective, AI-related superintelligence businesses have become an important source of growth, and services like Starlink provide revenue and operational profit support for the company.

However, rapid revenue growth does not mean there are no costs associated with future expansion.

SpaceX's capital expenditure in Q3 was approximately $19.593 billion, a significant portion of which was related to AI. Capital expenditures are investments in the construction and acquisition of long-term assets and do not equal current operating expenses, nor can they be directly subtracted from revenue to determine whether the company is operating at a loss.

What is crucial to monitor is whether these investments can quickly translate into sustainable income and cash flow.

Building AI data centers requires various resources from computing chips, servers, electricity, cooling systems, to physical locations. After equipment deployment, obtaining customer orders and continuous usage is necessary to gradually generate returns. If construction progress, chip supply, or power support is delayed, the funds have already been invested, but revenue realization may be postponed.

This is also why, after the Democratic Party made advances in the election, the market would reassess the policy environment facing AI infrastructure projects in the U.S.

Data center construction involves energy consumption, land use, community impacts, and environmental regulation. If local governments impose stricter approval requirements on new projects, the construction cycles and operational costs of relevant enterprises may be affected.

However, higher regulatory requirements do not mean projects will definitely be stalled. SpaceX still has various businesses like commercial spaceflight and Starlink, and cannot overlook the operational value of other segments solely because AI infrastructure faces policy uncertainties.

Institutions raise SpaceX profit forecasts, why is the stock still under pressure?

In this round of market activity, there’s another notable contrast: SpaceX’s stock price dropped, but some institutions have raised their long-term growth forecasts for the company.

According to remarks by Yinhui Finance, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has recently increased forecasts for SpaceX’s future revenue and operating profit and has pushed the expected timeline for the company’s free cash flow to turn positive from 2035 to 2031, while also lowering previous estimates of external financing needs.

This adjustment is primarily based on growth expectations for the company's AI business, satellite connectivity services, and commercial spaceflight business.

However, it's essential to distinguish that institutional forecasts do not equal the company's already realized operational results. Advancing the timeline for positive free cash flow does not mean SpaceX can currently fully rely on its own cash flow to support all future expansions.

Institutional models typically adjust based on factors such as revenue growth, profit margins, capital expenditures, and financing needs. If any critical assumption within them changes, future valuations could also adjust accordingly.

This is why it’s possible for institutions to raise forecasts while the stock may still see short-term declines.

Investors may recognize the long-term business potential of SpaceX, but still worry about the short-term regulatory environment, AI infrastructure investments, and capital recovery cycles. For companies whose valuations already incorporate substantial future growth expectations, the market tends to focus more on the pace of realization.

Therefore, to assess SpaceX’s subsequent trends, one should not only consider targeted prices given by institutions but also observe whether AI business revenues continue to grow, whether Starlink user and service revenues expand, and whether capital expenditures can gradually transform into stable operational returns.

What do shareholders truly care about in a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX?

Aside from the elections and AI infrastructure, the potential integration between Tesla and SpaceX has also become a recent focal point for the market.

Both companies are closely related to Musk's business landscape, and there is some room for synergistic imagination between their operations. For instance, AI computing capability, energy supply, automation technology, and infrastructure construction may all become entry points for external discussions about potential integration.

However, it should be emphasized that discussions about potential mergers do not equate to finalized deals.

For investors, the value of a merger should not just be gauged by how large the combined business of the two companies is, but also by examining the deal structure, share exchange ratios, asset valuations, and future funding needs.

If the transaction involves issuing new shares, the existing shareholders' ownership percentages may change; if there are differences in capital expenditures and debt structures of different businesses, one also needs to consider how resources will be allocated post-merger.

Technological synergies may indeed bring long-term value, but it ultimately needs to be reflected in indicators such as operational efficiency, customer growth, profit margins, and earnings per share.

Until the deal terms are clearly defined, investors should not prematurely treat potential synergies as already realized gains. For Tesla and SpaceX, future stock price performance still needs to revert to the respective operational situations and valuation foundations of each.

What’s the outlook for Tesla and SpaceX? Focus on three signals

Following the decline on November 4th, what the market needs to observe next is not just whether the two stocks can rebound, but whether there are new changes in the fundamental situations and external environments of the enterprises.

First, do policy changes truly impact corporate projects?

The US midterm elections have changed the power dynamics in Congress, but policy adjustments require subsequent legislation, regulation, and specific execution procedures. For Tesla, it’s important to observe autonomous driving, automotive regulation, and related project approvals; for SpaceX, attention should be focused on AI data center construction, energy support, and the government project environment.

It cannot be simply concluded that businesses have lost specific opportunities based solely on election results.

Second, can AI business continuously realize revenue?

Tesla needs to demonstrate its long-term growth expectations through actual advancements in autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and robotics businesses; SpaceX should monitor the revenue from AI business, Starlink connectivity services, and operational efficiency of computing infrastructure.

If new businesses continue to expand and gradually generate stable profits, the market may provide more support for the company’s long-term valuation. Conversely, if capital expenditures keep increasing but revenue and cash flow growth do not keep pace, valuation pressure may persist.

Third, can stock prices regain volume and fundamental support?

In the short term, one can observe the previous low points of Tesla and SpaceX’s stocks, changes in trading volume, and the level of capital participation during rebounds. If stock prices rebound but the volume is insufficient, it indicates that market confidence may still be limited; if there is a substantial increase in volume to reclaim key price areas, further observation can be made to see if sustained recovery occurs.

In conclusion

The major US tech stocks surged while Tesla and SpaceX declined against the trend, reflecting not only the political sentiment changes brought about by the US midterm elections.

For Tesla, the market is awaiting further realization of growth expectations from autonomous driving, robotics, and energy businesses; for SpaceX, the rapid expansion of AI business has created new revenue opportunities but also raised higher capital expenditure and funding recovery requirements.

The long-term development of Musk's companies still has noteworthy business support, but whether future valuations can be maintained ultimately depends on technological progress, project approvals, profitability, and cash flow performance.

For US stock investors, what’s truly worth tracking is not the ups and downs of a single day, but whether there are continuous realizations of operational data behind market expectations.

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