The market is becoming stable, with Bitcoin's high and low yesterday at 76381 and 74810, respectively. One comforting point is that it broke through a small support below 75000, refreshing the support level again and getting closer to our profit-taking position. Yesterday also updated the non-farm payroll data, which old Cui did not mention. This has caused many users to ask old Cui this question, to put it bluntly, this news is not significant. The previous explanation mainly analyzed the trend; under the clear condition of interest rate hikes, employment data is not very important. Its essence cannot change the trend, even if this employment data is extremely favorable, December will still see a correction. This also leads to the fact that the short-term trend has no stimulating bullish rebound, and the pressure is still very clear. Everyone should focus on the news front, which is a turning point that can change the interest rate hike situation, such as the price of crude oil and military aspects, and more intuitively, the inflation issue being properly resolved.

The short-term stimulus from non-farm payrolls will only exist in intuitive markets such as the U.S. stock market and dollar assets; the next-tier markets, like cryptocurrencies, will not have a significant feeling. Don't think that the bulls will return; these are all illusions. The U.S. Democratic Party plans to promote AI regulatory legislation and strengthen investigations into tech giants. When strategies begin to tighten, it will not give the market free play. After the current stage of news integration, there is a clear attitude that needs to adopt a tougher stance on the AI and cryptocurrency markets. If this attitude does not change, it will be very difficult to reverse the trend, and it will not have a big impact on contract users but will test the patience of spot users. Those paying attention to the data will have a clear feeling that this year's capital acquisition has exceeded expectations, but the price reflection is not obvious. The inflow status can lead the market to develop such a trend, which feels a bit hard to understand; this theory has certain validity.

Perhaps you are not seeing it comprehensively, especially relying on the second half of the year. The growth of the U.S. ETFs is not strong, and even during many time periods, it shows a state of outflow. For example, a large amount of capital flowed out of the U.S. spot BTC ETF market yesterday, with a net outflow of as much as 412 million USD; just one day of an outflow of 400-500 million has already appeared multiple times. The ability to show such a trend indicates that the outflow must be greater than the inflow. Why does this happen? It only shows that large trades are not changing hands at market prices, also known as cold wallet technology trading, which affects the price trend in the crypto space. Especially the recent outflow, since the interest rate hike began, the outflow of funds in the crypto space is still quite evident. The current market state is a typical pressure-bearing state. Adding to this is the domestic attitude; the People's Bank of China stated that it has joined local financial management, public security, market supervision, and other departments to stop Solana's advertising and offline exchange activities in Shanghai and will conduct investigations with relevant departments on the involved units and individuals.

Old Cui summarizes: The issues facing the crypto space now are not just about capital choices; including the resistance faced by market expansion, the unresolved RWA, and pressure from Trump's scrutiny, the situation is still quite serious. Solving this in the short term is fundamentally impossible, and SOL's issue is not significant. All these actions are just probes, and the denial will not have too much impact. There will be some short-term effects, and price fluctuations will be very quick. Recently, everyone can pay attention to the trends in the U.S. stock market; the correlation between technology probability stocks and cryptocurrencies is still very strong. As long as the day's trend in the U.S. stock market develops, Bitcoin's trend will almost always follow closely; the capital between these two is almost the same. Users looking to do contracts in the short term should continue with the earlier approach for short positions. Due to the rebound in the U.S. stock market yesterday, without news exposure, the crypto market's trend will ease in the next couple of days but will not last long; a decline will continue afterward. The previous short positions that were trapped will now provide profit opportunities, so everyone should try to seize this chance.

Original content by WeChat public account: On-Chain Science. For assistance, please contact directly.

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