Recently, several cryptocurrency enthusiasts asked an interesting question: Before King Understanding took office, Bitcoin soared from around 75,000 to 120,000. Now that King Understanding's term is coming to an end with a light position in Bitcoin, will Bitcoin return to below 70,000?

First, a correction: This is not a "prediction" issue, because it is currently fluctuating above 75,000.

CME Bitcoin futures closed at 75,785 last night, with a daily low of 74,810, and approximately 140 billion in market value evaporated in 4 hours. In other words, the 75,000 level has just been touched. So the real question is whether this is support or a continuation of the decline.

Three Key Points

1. The hand of interest rates has reversed. The Federal Reserve maintained rates at 3.75%–4% in October, and Chair Waller clearly rejected a softening inflation target; last night's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate fell, pushing the probability of a rate hike in December to 68.7%. What the crypto market fears most is not the rate hike itself, but the removal of the "expectation of easing," with the narrative of rate cuts being absorbed in the upcoming 2024 rally.

2. The policy dividend is retreating. The Democrats secured a two-chamber advantage in the midterm elections, making the legislative difficulty of the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" even greater, as the regulatory framework returns to a tug of war between the SEC and CFTC. The premium from the previous round of "crypto-friendly government" is being slowly priced back.

3. Overall risk appetite is shrinking. The NASDAQ and S&P recorded their worst single-day performances since April 2025 the day before yesterday, rebounding only last night due to chip stocks. BTC is currently highly correlated with the NASDAQ, and the leverage liquidation fuse is still in place.

2. The same 75,000 has completely different meanings

Before King Understanding takes office again in 2024, just starting from 68,000, the ETF is just gaining volume, with incremental inflow and expectations of rate cuts and expected trading.

In contrast, after a 25% pullback from the 100,000 high at the beginning of the year, along with institutional pricing causing ETFs to drop 27% over a year, the flow is predetermined, supplemented by expectations of rate hikes and realization of trades.

So do not take "returning to 75,000" as a symmetrical reference—75,000 in 2024 is a floor, while the current 75,000 is a contested position below the ceiling. In June this year, it even broke below 60,000, indicating that the lower boundary of this market is looser than most people's recollection.

3. How it moves, watch these positions

· 75,000 to 74,810 (the low of this week): This is currently the only close defense line. If the daily closes below 74,800, it means 75k changes from support to resistance.

· Upper level 79,000–80,000: The position of the failed rebound this week, if it cannot return, the downward structure remains.

· Lower level of 70,000 as an integer level, further down is the deep-water zone of 58,000–60,000 in June.

My judgment: The short-term outlook is weak oscillation, and the probability of effectively breaking below 75,000 is no less than holding it, not because it is expensive, but because the three pillars driving it—1. liquidity, 2. policy, 3. risk appetite—are all trending down. However, for it to truly fall back to the "starting point" below 68,000 like in 2024, a systematic correction in the US stock market is needed to cooperate; relying solely on the liquidation of leverage in the crypto space is not sufficient.

As for the conclusion of King Understanding's term: The crypto market has nearly completed its pricing, what remains is the inability of the policy to drive this chronic negative sentiment in a limping duck stage, rather than a one-time shock. What truly determines next year's direction is the interest meeting in December, as that will be the watershed.

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