Dear teammates, the most explosive news in the market today is that Strategy's subsidiary Stretch has raised $2.521 billion and simultaneously purchased 21,021 bitcoins. This is one of the largest institutional increases in this cycle, with real buying power directly absorbing market supply, providing a significant boost to the mid-term confidence in BTC. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Ahr999 indicator has fallen below 0.45, returning to the historically bottoming range, attracting bargain hunters from a valuation perspective. On the other hand, Core Scientific has sold 96% of its Bitcoin holdings in the third quarter and announced the termination of mining by the end of 2026, and the supply pressure from mining companies clearing their holdings cannot be ignored. Both long and short sides are fiercely battling around 76,000, and Sister Qinglan will help you clarify the context using the TPV system.
Current price and time
The current time is November 8, 12:32. The latest quote for BTC is 75,952 USDT, with a 24-hour change of only 0.13%, almost flat. The Fear and Greed Index reports 28, falling within the fear range but has marginally rebounded from extreme panic. The BTC market share is 59.34%, and funds are still concentrating on Bitcoin, with 70% of altcoins falling below the 200-day moving average, showing a clear contraction in risk appetite. This pattern of "Bitcoin stabilizing while altcoins bleed" indicates that the current situation is a stock game rather than an overall rally, and operations must be more careful about position and rhythm.
Multi-Period Status Overview
Daily level: The price of 75,952 USDT is far below the daily MA5 of 76,851.18, MA10 of 77,183.06, and MA30 of 80,195.50, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement. The daily MACD has a DIF of -1,550.87, a DEA of -1,261.06, and a column value of -289.81, still below the zero line. The daily RSI is only 36.99, generally in a weak recovery phase, with no trend reversal signal yet.
4-hour level: The price is fluctuating narrowly around the MA5 of 75,860.22 and MA10 of 75,900.62, with MA30 at 77,203.34 providing upper resistance. It is worth noting that the 4-hour MACD has just formed a golden cross, with a DIF of -574.21, a DEA of -579.64, and a column value turning positive to 5.43; RSI has rebounded to 46.82, indicating that short-term momentum is recovering, which is one of the few positive signs in the current market.
1-hour level: This is the core battlefield of the TPV system. The 1-hour EMA55 is at 76,348.77, and the current price of 75,952 USDT is clearly below it, with a price difference of about 0.52%. The 1-hour MACD has a DIF of -57.28, a DEA of -87.67, and a column value of 30.39, which is positive, indicating that the downward momentum is waning, but the RSI is only at 50.20, with both long and short forces balanced, providing little directional strength.
15-minute level: MA5 is at 75,922.77, MA10 at 75,862.29, and MA30 at 75,801.38, with short-cycle moving averages beginning to form a bullish arrangement. The 15-minute MACD has a DIF of 38.61, a DEA of 18.21, and a positive column value of 20.40, with an RSI of 61.32 indicating relatively strong short-term rebound momentum, but this level is too small to be used as a directional basis, only as a reference for entry timing.
TPV Signal Verification
First, let's look at the trend positioning. The current price of 75,952 USDT is below the 1-hour EMA55 of 76,348.77. According to the TPV system rules, we are currently in a bearish trend area. In the past 8 1-hour candlesticks, the number of times the closing price was above the EMA55 is 0/8, with 0 crossings, and the absolute magnitude from the price to the EMA55 is 0.52%, which does not meet the fluctuation threshold. The system judges this as a unidirectional trend state, leaning bearish.
Next, let's check if the three conditions for shorting are met. Condition one: the price is under pressure below the 1-hour EMA55, and the closing prices of the last two 1-hour candles are both below EMA55, which has been met. Condition two: pressure resistance pattern; the current 1-hour level has not shown significant long upper shadows or top reversal patterns, and the price is consolidating narrowly between 75,900 and 76,000, with resistance characteristics not being sufficiently typical. Condition three: weak rebound signal; the 1-hour MACD column value is positive at 30.39 but is shortening, and RSI has rebounded from a low position to 50.20, which is exactly a sign of waning downward momentum, contradicting the shorting conditions.
In summary, the conclusion given by the TPV system is that the trend direction leans bearish, but the three conditions for shorting are not simultaneously met, especially with a clear signal of momentum exhaustion. The risk of chasing shorts at this time is high. The system prefers to wait for the price to rebound to near EMA55 to assess shorting opportunities again, or to wait for the price to stabilize above EMA55 to form a buying signal. Currently, this is an observation window of “bearish direction but not all signals are complete,” which is not suitable for hasty entry.
On-chain/Funding Situation
The funding situation shows a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears. On the bullish side, Strategy's single purchase of 21,021 BTC is a heavyweight institutional buying, the Ahr999 indicator has fallen below 0.45, entering a historical bottoming range, and the panic index has risen from extreme panic to 28, marginally improving market sentiment. Whales withdrew 13,080 ETH worth $29.21 million from Binance on the 6th, reducing exchange selling pressure. On the bearish side, Core Scientific has sold 96% of its holdings and plans to terminate mining, while a hacker has exchanged $175 million worth of altcoins for 2,300 BTC, presenting potential selling pressure. Additionally, a whale redeemed 7,500 ETH to Binance over three days, seeming to indicate a sell-off. On the regulatory front, expectations for stricter crypto regulations have increased after the Democrats took power, suppressing risk appetite. Overall, institutions are accumulating on the spot side, but the supply increase from mining companies and hackers is counteracting this, resulting in a funding situation that is neutral but skewed to the bulls, lacking decisive thrust.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
The first resistance level above is the 1-hour EMA55 at 76,348.77, which is the bull-bear dividing line according to the TPV system. The price must close above this position for two consecutive 1-hour candles to confirm a trend reversal to bullish. The second resistance level is the 4-hour MA30 at 77,203.34, forming a resistance band with the daily MA5 at 76,851.18. The first support level below is the support zone formed by the 15-minute MA30 at 75,801.38 and the 4-hour MA5 at 75,860.22, while the second support level is the dense area of previous lows between 75,500 and 75,600. The current price of 75,952 USDT is importantly positioned between the upper edge of the support zone and the pressure level of EMA55, with the space compressed, indicating that a trend change is approaching.
Trading Strategy
Direction: The current TPV system determines a bearish trend area, but the three conditions for shorting are not all satisfied, and the momentum exhaustion signal is clear. The plan is to mainly short on rebounds under pressure and, secondarily, turn bullish if the price stabilizes above EMA55. No chasing shorts or bottom fishing; wait for signals.
Shorting Plan: The entry condition is for the price to rebound to the 76,300 to 76,350 range, i.e., near 1-hour EMA55, showing a long upper shadow or top reversal pattern and the 1-hour MACD column value begins to shorten, with RSI falling from high levels. When these three resonate, enter to short. Set the stop-loss at 76,650 USDT, about 0.4% above EMA55 to prevent false breakouts. The first target is at 75,800 USDT, and the second target is at 75,500 USDT.
Buying Plan: The entry condition is for the closing price of two consecutive 1-hour candles to stand above 76,348.77 and not break below EMA55 on the retracement. The 1-hour MACD column value must continue to expand, with RSI stabilizing above 50, confirming the entry to buy long. The stop-loss is set below 76,000 USDT, with the target at the daily MA5 position of 76,850 USDT, and further at the 4-hour MA30 at 77,200 USDT.
In terms of position management, we are currently in a signal observation period, and light testing is recommended, controlling the risk of a single trade within 2% of total funds, and considering increasing positions only after the CPI data is released.
Risk Warning
The CPI data next week and the launch of the Elysium mainnet may trigger severe macro fluctuations, with the hacker's leveraged long and short hedge position exceeding $25.67 million, increasing risk of volatility when the direction is unclear; strict stop-loss must be enforced.
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