The weekend market is becoming more stable, with all predictions very close, and overall fluctuations of less than a thousand points, providing reasons for both bullish and bearish positions. After looking at some news, it seems the issues aren't too significant. A few data points to discuss: the Stretch fund under Strategy raised $2.521 billion to purchase 21,000 bitcoins, a hacker on Binance exchanged $175 million in altcoins for about 2,300 bitcoins, and the U.S. bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $1.282 billion this week; the first data point is relatively bullish, while the latter two messages are almost entirely bearish. Even hackers know that altcoins are unreliable, yet there are still people willing to invest. This time, Old Cui agrees with the hacker's view. The indicator for the U.S. spot ETF seems more like a guide for future trends; if this indicator continues to show outflows this month, it will likely be difficult to see a strong rebound in the next three months. Coupled with a rate hike in December, the outflow of capital could lead to lower bitcoin prices, especially with the hacker cashing out in this process. Given the domestic influence, who can absorb such a large outflow in the next three months?

Under such financial pressure, Old Cui struggles to see a positive trend for the next six months. Outflows take time to align, while growth also needs time to digest. Regarding a bull market trend, Old Cui is definitely bullish in the long term; however, in the short term, he doesn’t hold this thought. Perhaps the dominance of the bears has led many users to question the bullish perspective. Throughout the trend, many indicators are extremely consistent—for example, the interest rate hike cycle is likely to be maintained within 1-2 years. Trump's tenure is also expected to remain within 2 years, while the U.S. has an expectation of passing legislation within 1-2 years as well, and Europe’s interest rate hike legislation is also centered around a 2-year cycle. For the cryptocurrency bull market, Old Cui estimates that it might erupt within 1-2 years, which could be financial cyclicality. There is no need for everyone to generate unnecessary internal consumption regarding the bull market; it is necessary to calculate based on reality.

Of course, speculation will not remain unchanged, and all variables are almost entirely concentrated on the U.S. attitude. It can only be said that as of now, there is no reason for the U.S. to reject the cryptocurrency market. The total market value of Solana's Real World Assets (RWA) has reached $4.8 billion. Among them, the market size of tokenized funds is $3.7 billion, tokenized stocks are $1.1 billion, and commodity tokens are $31.9 million. One point of difference between the cryptocurrency sphere and the AI field lies here; the process of tokenization has not been delayed. Even in a downward market, the growth in scale is still in sync. At this moment, one cannot deny the value of the cryptocurrency sphere; when the financial sector recovers, Old Cui can see strong growth. Not just SOL, BNB, ETH, BTC, and even DOGE—throughout the entire ecosystem, even under the pressure of a bear market, everyone has not chosen to give up. With the growth of scale, the U.S. has even less reason to give up; as long as this strategy can be sustained, the bull market explosion is just a matter of time.

Old Cui summarizes: still make predictions based on the growth of the cryptocurrency sphere and also talk about personal operations. A reminder to everyone, as we approach year-end, the market's volatility is not the only concern; one must also be wary of personal assets and not easily choose to trust others. It’s easy to be deceived at year-end, especially in comment sections—try not to leave personal information. Old Cui's operational mindset, including personal entry points, has never been hidden from everyone, regardless of gains or losses, which everyone can see on social media—there are figures for profits and losses. Currently, the position allocation remains 60% in spot, still showing a numerical loss. 30% operates contracts, and 10% is reserved. Bullish on spot, bearish on contracts continues the strategy; there is not much more to say about spot, as any future supplementation likely will operate based on contract profits. On the contract side, continue holding short positions at Bitcoin 80700 and 80400; a take-profit order might be triggered later. The first take-profit target remains at 74000, while the second take-profit needs to be predicted based on tomorrow’s U.S. stock market movements. So those who want to know next week’s operations will need to wait for Old Cui's follow-up; any changes will be communicated to everyone. At the same time, Old Cui does not have the possibility of operating long positions, as it's not yet the time for a reversal. Those engaging in short selling need to avoid two positions: the Democrats’ impeachment of Trump and changes in the interest rate hike cycle. At other times, just set proper stop-loss levels when short selling, which won’t pose too big a problem.

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