On the afternoon of November 10, while monitoring the market, what I was most concerned about was that BTC broke below the 50-week moving average. The recent pullback was quite nice, but in the blink of an eye, it dropped to $73,620. Bitcoin has seen five consecutive weekly declines, and the U.S. stock market has just experienced a round of significant fluctuations. The bottom cannot be bought forever. I still have gold in hand with unrealized gains and have not yet built a position in U.S. stocks. I plan to first see if Bitcoin can hold at $73,600. The prices mentioned in the text are readings from when the broadcast started.
BTC Breaks Below 50-Week Moving Average
At that moment, the 50-week moving average was at $75,494 and the low for this week was at $73,620, which was deeper than I expected. Next, I will be watching the area around $73,600 closely; if it cannot hold, I will reassess my judgment of the market.
At that time, I saw two pieces of news. One was that the U.S. spot BTC ETF had over $201 million in outflows, and the other was that some miners might be selling coins. Combined with unexpected news in the crypto space and the pullback in U.S. stocks, the risk appetite for funds weakened as well. Some of my indicators have not been very useful lately, so I will trade cautiously with contracts and view spot and contract positions separately. Last week, I felt that the market could be tough to navigate for a while, and it's okay to take a break when there's a position loss.
When Prices Go Down, I Watch Who is Selling
At the time, I noticed a contrast in on-chain data; some long-term holders began to loosen, while short-term holders remained relatively calm. I will pay particular attention to the chips that entered the market earlier around $80,000 and $90,000. Large orders should also be watched closely, as there have been more frequent large orders recently, with an increased number of tests below the lows. When I see more large orders, I also need to look back to see if these orders have absorbed the downturn.
When U.S. stocks rebound, BTC is not keeping up, which may be because funds have gone to U.S. stocks first. When U.S. stocks decline, BTC also drops, possibly because risk is contracting together. These two situations coming in sequence means that there will be a time for chips to change hands, and the previous upward structure needs to slowly repair. At this point, looking at price, chips, and the reactions of holders together makes it easier to decide whether to adjust positions.
Gold's $4,200 Threshold
Last week, gold was still around $3,900, and by the time of the broadcast, it had risen to about $4,124. Compared to BTC, gold was more stable during those days. I will treat $4,200 as the next observation point to see how the price behaves when it reaches there.
The tokenization of gold in Hong Kong is also worth following. In a case previously discussed, the Hong Kong Gold Exchange and Citic International Bank did a pilot under Ensemble, using tokenized deposits to support gold trading, achieving currency-to-gold delivery, with settlement as fast as about five minutes. The plan disclosed at that time was to promote commercialization by 2027, allowing traditional deposits and tokenized deposits to run in parallel and explore around-the-clock delivery. I will continue to pay attention to the revisions of virtual asset regulations in Hong Kong, as well as the mentions of tokenization applications by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in "Fintech 2030."
How to Incorporate U.S. Stocks and Gold into a Long-Term Portfolio
When looking at U.S. stocks, I first separate large caps from individual stocks. SPYB corresponds to the S&P 500 ETF SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which covers about 500 large American companies. QQQB can serve as a supplement, with a higher weight in tech and growth stocks. If I really want to buy some NVIDIA or Tesla individually, I would consider taking out about 5% from the position initially allocated to SPYB, allowing the broad market to continue to dominate.
My portfolio strategy is to use SPYB for stock positions, PAXG for gold positions, and use USDT and USDC for spot liquidity and wealth management respectively. This way, I can focus on position ratios and the next rebalancing. It was mentioned in the live broadcast that some tokenized products start around $5 and support all-day trading, but the actual trading hours, qualifications, and exchange rules depend on the corresponding products.
Several Lines to Track in a Weak Market
For RWA, I will track LINK, ONDO, and XAUT, paying attention to any new developments in traditional assets being tokenized. For the privacy sector, I will monitor ZEC, XMR, and DASH to see how demand changes after tightening regulations. In DeFi, I will look at UNI, AAVE, and HYPE, focusing on whether the protocols have actual fees. For mainstream L1, I will examine the ecological activity and liquidity of ETH, BNB, and SOL. Gold, ZEC, and HYPE are a few I frequently watch and will add them to my observation list.
How to Use Contract Radar for Short-term Trading
For altcoin contracts, I can start by looking at the charts to see where large orders are positioned, and then check if the price subsequently caught support. During those days, I was also looking at JCT; the several pullbacks and rebounds marked on the chart can serve as references to see how far the price moved after large orders appeared.
To illustrate using the JCT chart, I will mark the positions of large orders on the K-line and review whether pullbacks had support or rebounds faced resistance. The reactions shown on the chart can help me identify observation points, but it is difficult to judge solely from this chart where the trades are coming from.
In actual operations, I will first pick out unusually active targets from the contract radar, then go back to the K-line, and refer to large orders from "My Indicators." AKE, INIT, and ARIA all had significant fluctuations at that time; keeping an eye on such short-term trades takes considerable time, and if I'm not confident, I will pass for now.
For Bitcoin, I am currently focusing on $73,600. If it cannot hold, I will reassess; if it does hold, I need to check whether there are large orders absorbing it and if the chips are starting to change hands. When indicators are temporarily ineffective, I prefer to make fewer trades, waiting until I can understand the situation again before acting.
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