The recent sideways fluctuations in BTB prices are consistent with the weak performance of global liquidity since the end of 2024. However, global liquidity is not the only factor determining BTB prices. The following chart shows other factors that affect BTB prices, but global liquidity directly explains over 40% of the changes in BTB prices. Market risk appetite is also an important factor, and BTB is more like a 'Risk On Asset'. In other words, if the S&P 500 index falls, BTB prices may also come under pressure. The price of gold and its relative price level to BTB also have statistical significance. This indicates that BTB and gold have an "error correction mechanism" in hedging against currency inflation: when the price of one asset deviates, the other asset often makes up for the rise or fall. This may explain why gold sometimes performs poorly while BTB rises sharply, and vice versa. But in the long run, the two are basically consistent. In addition, global liquidity also affects gold prices, thus indirectly strengthening its impact on BTB. The price of gold has long been correlated with the rate of debt growth. BTB has a short history, but since 2000, the stock of US treasury bond has increased from US $2.95 trillion to US $28.28 trillion, a 9.6 fold increase. During the same period, the price of gold also rose from $273 per ounce to 9.62 times its current level. Is this a coincidence or a trend? If this pattern continues to exist, BTB may follow the same path in the future.