On March 11, 2025, be more patient and see the essence through the noise Starting from this Monday, it was a waterfall wash, with both the US stock market and cryptocurrency plummeting, and Bitcoin plummeting ahead of schedule over the weekend. After reading the analysis of various experts, there is still a lot of information noise in my mind, and there is still a huge controversy among various analytical factions around whether the market has bottomed out -Macro school: Is there a price in recession expectations? The Price in faction believes that President Trump's statement that he doesn't care about stock market fluctuations is forcing a recession, and the market has recognized this; Those without Price in are still waiting for this week's CPI and next week's FOMC; -Technical experts: bullish line makers believe that Bitcoin and the US stock market have reached key support levels, and short-term oversold is expected to rebound; The bearish old mage believes that the weekly chart has double peaks and needs to continue to decline -Fundamentals: Those who are bullish on the US stock market believe that leading technology stocks are no longer suitable for bearish valuation after this round of price cuts; Those who are bearish on the US stock market believe that the uncertainty of tariffs and policies has not been eliminated yet. -Group members' positions and emotions: Most of the group members in the cryptocurrency industry are basically short positions, and a few insist on holding Bitcoin and Ethereum spot. This also indicates that the cryptocurrency industry is falling ahead of the US stock market. The US stock market only began a large-scale pullback at the end of February, and the cryptocurrency industry had already shown signs of fatigue in early February. All the group members should have cut, and now the rest are just copying the market. The chilling and appalling earning efficiency also indicates that the bearish sentiment has reached an extreme. Overall, I tend to wait and not rush to be bearish or bullish. I am more inclined to look for short-term rebounds, waiting for a historical level waterfall and then filling up with bullets, stuffing all the eggs in. Compared to the US stock market, the cryptocurrency industry may see a bottom first, such as on weekends when liquidity is relatively poor. If I were to look at the indicators, I would check if Vix has a chance of reaching a panic state above 35, and also pay more attention to whether Powell will loosen his grip and whether the Federal Reserve will turn dovish.