Reserve policy falls short of expectations, leading to increased macro uncertainty ​ The highly anticipated Bitcoin reserve plan has had no positive news recently. The Bitcoin Reserve Act signed by Trump stipulates that the reserve mainly comes from about 200000 bitcoins held by US policies, and additional purchases need to be "budget neutral", which makes it extremely difficult to make additional purchases, and the public's recognition of buying bitcoins is not high. At the same time, multiple states vetoed the Bitcoin Reserve Act, and although Utah passed the relevant bill, it removed the provision for investing in Bitcoin. Obviously, it is difficult to achieve the "nationwide coin buying" that practitioners expect. ​ At the macro level, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have lowered their expectations for the 2025 US GDP growth rate, increasing the likelihood of an economic recession. In the short term, Trump's policies have led to rising inflation and unemployment rates, weakened US dollar hegemony, and the contradiction between inflation and economic resilience caused by tariffs may form a vicious cycle. The difference in policy awareness between the wealthy class and the lower class further exacerbates uncertainty. ​ For the financial market, previously funds flooded into gold, US stocks, and the US dollar in search of certainty, but now the US stocks and the US dollar have fallen, losing certainty. The rise of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares was also affected by this. Bitcoin's association with the US stock market has strengthened, and investors need to be alert to its market volatility in the first half of this year. ​ Follow me to learn more about the cryptocurrency industry and consult with you.