The most talked about homework in the past two days is whether it is a rebound or a reversal. A rebound is just a splash on the road to decline, while a reversal opens up a new narrative. So now is it a rebound or a reversal? I don't think the current factors are suitable for a reversal. The decline in the US stock market and Bitcoin is mainly due to recession expectations, inflation expectations, and trade wars. When these issues are not resolved, the reversal may not come quickly. The write off expectation is based on the data given by GDPNow. Up to now, the data given is still -2.4%. Although the former US Secretary of Finance also believes that the current recession is groundless, he also believes that the decline of US stocks is mainly caused by Trump's aggressive trade policy. Therefore, whether it is the expectation of recession, trade policy, or even the possibility of causing inflation to rise, it is the main reason to hinder the rise of the risk market. Simple arrangement: 1. Expectations of recession. I don't believe that the Federal Reserve will acknowledge the risk of a recession in the United States at this time. At the interest rate meeting on the 20th, they should still consider the economy strong and deny the possibility of a recession. The GDP data for April is likely to cause market panic. 2. Trade strategy. Tariff is the main reason for the current panic in the market. Especially every time Trump increases his attitude towards tariffs, the market will think that he is not joking, even though he has paused twice. 3. Inflation risk. In fact, the essence of tariffs is still due to concerns about inflation, but inflation is not only caused by tariffs, but also by geopolitical conflicts including the Russia Ukraine war, and the end of the Russia Ukraine war is beneficial for inflation. These three are the main reasons currently hindering the progress of the risk market, of course, this background is still the current monetary policy of the United States. The ultimate goal of these three is to point to the Federal Reserve, but the Federal Reserve has two attitudes towards interest rate cuts. A. Economic recession will choose to cut interest rates. B. The expectation of inflation falling to 2% can lead to a rate cut. The former's interest rate cut will bring about a continued decline in the risk market, while the latter's interest rate cut can increase investors' risk appetite. So my personal opinion is that if it does not coincide with the occurrence of B, then the current rise may be a rebound, and the market will gradually move towards A, and after A occurs, B will naturally emerge. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin itself, some investors believe that the two-day rise brought about a reversal of emotions, but in reality it may only be a rebound. Therefore, when the decline reappeared, bargain hunters once again experienced panic, not only in BTC, but also in the US stock market. Today's decline has already erased all yesterday's gains. The reason for the conclusion is that the conditions required for a reversal were not met. From the turnover data, it can be seen that short-term bargain hunters still contributed the most to the sell-off, while earlier investors, even those who lost money, had limited opportunities to exit. This is also a process of short-term investors transferring to long-term investors. Although it was another day of decline, investors between $93000 and $98000, as mentioned earlier, remained calm and showed no signs of significant reduction in holdings. Therefore, the accumulation of Bitcoin in this area will not have an impact on the price for the time being. From the data of ETFs, it appears that the panic among American investors is beginning to subside, so even if the demand for reversal is not met in the future, the downward momentum may weaken. Data has been updated, address: https://docs. (google.com)/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit? usp=sharing This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex