Whales' Market Wrap: Mar 14, 2025 BTC 30D ATM IV: 51.98% | ETH 30D ATM IV: 68.30% | SOL 30D ATM IV: 92.84% SPX 30D ATM IV: 18.99% | QQQ 30D ATM IV: 25.05% | GLD 30D ATM IV: 16.24% BTC annualised 1yr implied yield: 6.93% ETH annualised 1yr implied yield: 6.59% Let's cheer for GOLD! After a month of consolidation, the price of gold successfully broke through 3,000. At the same time, the price of BTC also began to rebound significantly. Despite poor economic data, risk aversion has fallen as uncertainty disappears, and macro assets are the first to benefit from it - gold, BTC, and stock indices. Bullish sentiment for gold has exploded across the board. Investors have shown a "very optimistic" attitude towards gold's forward performance, and the front month has been dominated by bullish sentiment. In the delta 1 market, investors' expectations for BTC's performance have further improved as prices rebounded, but there is no significant improvement in the implied expected return on ETH. It is worth noting that with the current price rebound, investors' expectations for BTC's forward returns have converged, but this is more likely to be caused by the end-of-quarter rolling rather than a real expected decline. Investors' bearish sentiment on ETH has also improved, but compared to ETH, investors still believe that BTC will perform relatively better this year. However, we cannot ignore the current risks. The risks of tariff wars and imported inflation are further exposed. The one-year inflation rate expectations for March were significantly raised, while the consumer confidence index fell significantly, further compressing investors' exposure to relatively high-risk assets such as individual stocks and securities-like crypto assets. As a result of the above scenario, Investors' risk aversion to "securities-like assets" has not improved much compared to macro assets. With the decline in uncertainty, investors' searches for BTC have rebounded significantly. From the perspective of search keywords, this rebound is significantly related to the ease of investors' risk aversion. However, for ETH, due to the long-term decline, investors' disappointment in search-related terms is significant, and investors also link it more to the stock market, indicating that its performance is still relatively likely to resonate with the stock market performance in the future. Before the stock market fully recovers, ETH and altcoins will hardly have a chance to recover. In addition, Blackrock's BTC ETF has stopped capital outflows, but the outflows of ETH ETF have not stopped. Similar to the performance of some technology-themed ETFs, traditional market investors are still actively reducing their positions in security-type cryptocurrencies. In summary, it is still a good choice to hold BTC and stablecoins at present; if you bought gold in July last year based on our previous research, it would be even better:)