Whales' Market Wrap: Mar 19, 2025 BTC 30D ATM IV: 50.80% | ETH 30D ATM IV: 64.52% | SOL 30D ATM IV: 89.89% SPX 30D ATM IV: 18.78% | QQQ 30D ATM IV: 24.19% | GLD 30D ATM IV: 16.10% BTC annualised 1yr implied yield: 6.12% ETH annualised 1yr implied yield: 5.55% The results of the FOMC meeting did not exceed our expectations. Although Powell began to pay attention to the possible risk of stagflation, monetary policy expectations have not changed much. As a result, risk aversion in the crypto and US stock markets fell briefly, driving the rebound in BTC and ETH prices. However, from the perspective of implied forward yields, BTC's implied forward yield rebounded with the price rise, but ETH's implied forward yield did not rise significantly and remained below 5.8%. This means the rise in ETH prices is more likely a byproduct of improved risk aversion and liquidity squeeze rather than a real return of investor bullish sentiment. Similar situations can also be seen in the options market. Investors' bullish sentiment for BTC has improved significantly and rebounded, and bullish sentiment has dominated market expectations after April. In contrast, bullish sentiment for ETH has only been dominant since June, and bearish sentiment still dominated before that. Investors still believe it will be difficult for ETH to perform relatively better before the visible liquidity improvement brought about by more rate cuts. ETH's huge positive gamma peak around 1.8-2k is becoming a resistance to further price increases, and this resistance is mainly composed of massive quarterly options expiring on Mar 28, which means that the hedging behaviour of market makers is likely to keep the ETH price firmly around $2k. In contrast, BTC's positive gamma in the direction of price increases is mainly composed of 0DTE options, which means that its price is significantly more likely to break through or fluctuate sharply than ETH. Although ETH's market share has rebounded slightly, the market share of BTC and stablecoins has not been significantly impacted, and the market share remains relatively stable, which means that this rebound is more from the rotation of funds within the crypto market rather than from the inflow of external funds. ETH ETF funds continue to flow out, while BTC ETF funds have flowed in for two consecutive days, which proves this from the side.