A big change might be coming to markets: The S&P 500 to Treasuries ratio declined to its lowest level since October 2024. At the same time, stock valuations relative to bonds dropped sharply to near the lowest in a year, according to Topdown Charts analysis. This comes as tariff uncertainty and recession fears have skyrocketed over the last few weeks. Historically speaking, Treasuries have substantially outperformed stocks during economic downturns. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is down -3.5% year-to-date, while the popular bond-tracking ETF, TLT, is up +4.5%. Will bonds outperform stocks this year?