Although the BTC price is still over 80000 yuan, the main exchange contract U standard has fallen to the level of over 70000 yuan, and the holdings of the coin standard have fallen to the level of 40000 to 50000 US dollars last year. There is a decrease in hedging and speculative activities, and funds continue to flow out. This is consistent with the trend of on chain activities. Then the premium of CME futures has basically disappeared, which means that the market's preference for long positions has been exhausted, and arbitrage funds will be withdrawn from the market, which was long spot short futures， This means the closure of spot long positions, consistent with the recent trend of ETF outflows that we have seen, which is an additional type of headwind