The United States reached a new debt ceiling around January 21st, and the government has been unable to issue new bonds since then. The yield on US Treasury bonds began to decline around 1/10 of a day, from a peak of 4.8% to 4.25%. On the other hand, since the 1/21 debt ceiling, TGA has decreased from 704b to 383 b (160b per month), and at this rate, there are still about 70 days left until the end of May. So, the debt ceiling must be resolved before the end of May, otherwise there will be a government shutdown. So in May, the government will continue to issue bonds, and at this time, the interest rate can still be maintained at around 4%? On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is still in QT, and now there are 5b/m treasury bond and 35b/m mbs. I estimate that the next FOMC meeting will also cancel the 5b/m treasury bond qt. Will it be QE? The Fed is still constrained by inflation. What if you are Trump?