Citigroup predicts three trading scenarios for 'tariff day': overall probability of decline greater than rise

According to BlockBeats, on March 30th, Citigroup summarized three main scenarios for the US tariff policy day on April 2nd and provided corresponding market impacts in its latest report: One is to only announce reciprocal tariffs, which has limited market response; The second is reciprocal tariffs plus value-added tax (VAT), and the US dollar index may immediately rise by 50-100 basis points, while global stock markets may also decline; The third is that in addition to reciprocal tariffs and value-added taxes, it also includes industry-specific tariffs, in which case the market reaction may be more intense. The report states that after the S&P 500 suffered its worst start to a quarter since 2020, analysts have warned that the potential for a subsequent decline is greater than an increase, and that future tariffs and retaliatory actions are key. "The market reaction on April 2nd will largely depend on the timing of tariffs, especially industry tariffs, and the speed at which other countries respond to reciprocal tariffs," (Wall Street Journal)