Citi Report Predicts Three Major Scenarios and Market Impact for April 2nd US Tariff Policy Day

Odaily Planet Daily News: Citigroup has predicted three main scenarios for April 2nd, the US tariff policy day, and analyzed the corresponding market impacts in its latest report: Only announcing reciprocal tariffs: In this scenario, market reactions are relatively limited. Reciprocal tariffs plus value-added tax (VAT): The US dollar index may immediately rise by 50-100 basis points, and global stock markets may decline. In addition to reciprocal tariffs and value-added taxes, it also includes industry-specific tariffs: in this situation, market reactions may be more intense. The report points out that after the worst start to a quarter for the S&P 500 since 2020, analysts have warned that the potential risks of a subsequent decline outweigh those of an increase. Analysis suggests that future tariffs and retaliatory actions will be crucial, and the market reaction on April 2nd will depend on the timing of tariffs, especially industry tariffs, as well as the speed at which other countries respond to reciprocal tariffs.