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Miles Deutscher
Miles Deutscher|Apr 02, 2025 08:00
This is one of the most important days of the year for stocks and crypto. Everything you need to know about Trump's "Liberation Day" on April 2 (today).👇 What's happening? The implementation of a new wave of "reciprocal" tariffs on imports into the United States, aimed at countering trade barriers imposed by other countries on U.S. goods. Timing: Announcements could be anytime, but we'll likely see a live speech or press release during the U.S. afternoon or evening. Biggest variables (unknowns): • How big are the tariffs? 10%? 20%? Higher? Estimates right now range from ~12-20% • Which countries will be affected the most? • Which countries will retaliate? Could it snowball into a much bigger trade war? Impact on markets: • Market reaction will likely depend on how aggressive the tariffs are. Markets are forward-looking, so they are likely already priced into markets, but the market reaction on the day will depend on how extreme we deviate from consensus expectations. Retaliation from other countries over the coming days will also impact how markets digest things. • Keep your eye on sector-specific impacts, e.g. tech/consumer goods could be more affected due to the direct impact of the tariffs on certain trade lines. • In the short term, it's not unreasonable to assume that the majority of de-risking has already occurred - events like these are often "buy the rumour, sell the news". • It will obviously be a volatile day/few days as headlines break, so I would avoid leverage. Technical setups during this period might also be prone to fakeouts.
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Timeline

May 02, 06:33【Short term markets are influenced by macro and political factors】
May 02, 05:27【Bitcoin Market Update】
May 02, 00:30【Bitcoin Market Clears the Speculative foam】
May 01, 23:41【The market is the most bearish on all sentiment indicators】
May 01, 20:39【Macro market sentiment remains stable, investors pay attention to non farm payroll data】
May 01, 19:44【NFT market hit again in April】
May 01, 18:15【BTC's strong monthly performance at the end of April】
May 01, 17:47【The cryptocurrency market rose today, with BTC breaking through 97K】
May 01, 16:02【BTC price integrates around value regions】
May 01, 15:54【BTC attracts bears to enter with horizontal substitution for decline】

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