QCP： In the short term, it is expected that all risk assets will continue to be under pressure, and market sentiment will remain sluggish

According to BlockBeats, on April 2nd, QCP released a daily market observation stating that "Trump is about to announce a series of tariff measures in the Rose Garden. In the short term, we expect all risk assets to continue to be under pressure. However, as the new situation gradually stabilizes, we may see some 'non-U.S. exceptionalism' phenomena. Even if the United States may be marginalized due to policy choices, global stock indices may continue to rise and reach new highs. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 2.5 times by 2025. The Federal Reserve is facing difficulties, with weak consumer confidence and soft data performance, which may indicate a slowdown in US GDP growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the inflationary pressure caused by tariffs may gradually intensify from April 2nd. In a classic stagflation environment, the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise interest rates rather than cut them. In the current situation, the Federal Reserve seems inclined to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. In terms of cryptocurrency, market sentiment remains sluggish. Bitcoin continues to fluctuate without clear direction, while Ethereum remains at the support level of $1800. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is showing signs of weakness, with many cryptocurrencies falling by 90% year to date, and some currencies falling by over 30% in the past week. Unless there is a significant change in the macroeconomic situation or a strong catalyst appears, we do not expect a substantial reversal in the market. Although light positions may support a slight increase, we will not pursue any upward trend until the macro environment improves