JPMorgan Chase: Trump tariffs bring $400 billion in tax revenue, while also posing a threat of recession

According to a report by Golden Ten, Michael Feroli, Chief Economist of JPMorgan Chase, stated in a report that Trump's tariffs will bring considerable revenue, but at the cost of price increases, which may affect consumers' purchasing power. He wrote, "On a static basis, the tariffs announced today will increase revenue by nearly $400 billion, accounting for about 1.3% of GDP. We estimate that the measures announced today may cause personal consumption expenditure prices to rise by 1-1.5% this year, and we believe that the inflationary impact will be realized in the middle of this year. The resulting blow to purchasing power may lead to negative growth in real disposable personal income growth in the second to third quarters, which could also cause real consumer spending to contract in these quarters. This impact alone could put the economy in a dangerous recession situation In addition, JPMorgan analysts estimate that over one-third of emerging market companies may be significantly affected after the implementation of US trade tariffs. The bank estimates that 36% of the over 750 companies covered by the CEMBI Emerging Market Corporate Debt Index, which is closely monitored by Mobike, may be affected, with 16% of companies potentially experiencing a significant impact.