I've called the May 7 FOMC meeting the most important FOMC meeting of the year. If the Fed cannot find a reason to cut on May 7, they will never find a reason. Orange is the market probability of a rate cut at the May 7 FOMC meeting. Hours after the tariffs announcement, with stocks getting crushed tonight, it is still only 25% (75% of no move). What more does the Fed need? Could it be the fear of cutting into rising inflation? Blue is the market probability of a rate cut at the June 18 FOMC meeting is 89% (11% of no move). If the Fed does not cut in May, I expect this to dwindle to a 0% probability.