To put it simply, if the recession deepens and lasts for a long time, then next year 2026 will be another 2022, albeit with a different macro background In 2022, it was a rate hike, and this time it is a rate cut because of the deep economic recession that led to a rate cut, which inevitably led to a decline in the risk market. BTC S&P500 If there is a shallow recession or a soft landing, the economy can quickly recover. So next year may be another 2021. Although there may not be QE, the balance sheet tightening is definitely over, which can be considered a neutral interest rate. Limited easing is better than tightening. Going back to the present, despite the current tariff situation, the timing of Trump's announcement and the East University's counter-measures are also very time sensitive. There is still room for negotiation, and other countries are also actively communicating. Although tariffs may cause inflation and economic recession, the impact time is not so fast, and there is currently no real recession, with an unemployment rate of only 4.2. For now, we still need to look at the GDP data for the first quarter of this month, followed by the unemployment rate and inflation data, depending on the decision of the Federal Reserve's Mr. Bao. If the tariff negotiations next week can be eased, which is not the worst outcome, then the market will rebound. Still looking at its previous position, 88500 has not yet stabilized.