Arthur Hayes: If the OVE index breaks 140, the Federal Reserve may restart water release Arthur Hayes wrote that if investors want to predict when the Federal Reserve will resume easing, they should pay attention to the bond market volatility indicator MOVE index. When MOVE rises, traders who raise funds to buy US bonds or corporate bonds will face higher margin requirements and be forced to close their positions. He stated that once MOVE breaks through 140, the Federal Reserve may intervene in the market.