Wall Street analyst Daniel Ives: Trump tariffs will set the US tech industry back ten years, China wins Author Daniel Ives is Wedbush MD, a technical analyst on Wall Street for over 20 years. The original text was published on April 5, 2025, and the following is the full translation: This week, we communicated with hundreds of investors, tech company CEOs, and supply chain experts around the world to assess the 'doomsday crisis' triggered by Trump's tariffs this week. In short, if these tariffs (in their current form/rate) remain unchanged, there is no doubt that in our view, this will set the US technology industry back ten years, and China will be the clear winner... We firmly believe in this. The population of the United States accounts for 4% of the world, but its GDP accounts for 26% of the world, thanks to American consumers. We have always believed that the American tech industry and Silicon Valley are one of the biggest assets of this country. Over the past thirty years, the United States has been involved in AI and has been supported by companies such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, and others OpenAI、 Amazon, Google Palantir、 Oracle, Tesla, and many other companies are leading China in the "Fourth Industrial Revolution". But if this tariff policy is implemented, it will cause massive chaos in the supply chain, uncertainty will lead to delayed capital expenditures, and thus slow down the pace of technological innovation in the United States... This is beyond doubt. As an analyst covering technology stocks for 25 years, I witnessed the Internet foam/burst, financial crisis, European debt crisis, COVID-19, etc. I think this is the biggest disaster in the history of the market, because it is entirely Trump's own bitter fruit, and the logic of the so-called 'short-term pains' has been seriously misjudged, which is exactly what we are concerned about. While it is easy to boast about "Made in America" in Washington, the reality is vastly different and unsettling. It takes 4-5 years to build a factory in the United States, and the labor and cost structure in the United States contradicts the overall concept of modern supply chains. Many intellectual property and technologies that drive supply chain development are concentrated in Asia, and this "short-term pain" may actually take ten years to produce results. If American technology companies face this reality, it will change the technology landscape in the coming decades. The cost structure of the US technology industry will make it unable to compete with China, and this will be a "lottery" for BYD, Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent, and thousands of other Chinese technology companies to gain more global market share in the coming years. 54% tariffs on China and 32% tariffs on Taiwan will basically cut off the supply chain of the US technology sector. In this process, the prices of all electronic products purchased by consumers will increase by 40-50%, and the price of domestically produced iPhones in the US will reach $3500 (currently $1000). The progress of the AI revolution will also significantly slow down due to these puzzling tariffs. I have flown millions of miles and witnessed factories and technology centers around the world with my own eyes... The United States had a unique opportunity to further develop its technology, robots, autonomous driving, and so on... but these retaliatory tariffs (turning the trade deficit into some strange calculation method), once implemented, will trigger an economic disaster, stagnate the American technology industry... and bury a bright future due to a global policy mistake, which we believe will reverse America's dominant position in the technology field. These tariffs must be adjusted to a reasonable level. If we don't do this, the technology industry will face even darker days. As investors recognize the reality, the stock market is already suffering a heavy blow.