Bitcoin Quantile Model Update Price: 80K Risk Score: 47% Bitcoin is getting significantly de-risked here. At the bottom of the 2024 correction, we dipped down to the 33rd quantile – the critical level that marks the bear market bottom boundary. That level would be ~ 70K today and 90K by year-end. Absent a recession, 70K is my worst-case scenario. This implied that 109K to 80K, we have completed 75% of the correction. While the macro backdrop remains grim and further sell-off is possible, we think Bitcoin is deeply undervalued for a long-term investor.