Last night, US Trade Representative Greer attended a hearing of the Senate Finance Committee and stated that the tariff strategy will not change in the short term. It is necessary for companies to suffer some pain in order to bring back manufacturing jobs. The equivalent tariff rates for 57 trading partners will take effect at 12:01 am on Wednesday. The President has made it clear that he will not take any exemptions or exceptions in the short term. 1. Last Thursday morning, the strongest tariffs were introduced, and when it comes to the market, these policy figures should be used to predict the worst-case scenario for pricing, which would be a huge impact on the market. At that time, the pricing may not have been in place. In late March, when "4.2" was being played, I talked about that if it was a hard version, it would basically be a forceful killing. Now I honestly underestimated the strength of the killing, and the core underestimated Trump's determination to be Rocket. The magnitude of market adjustment far exceeds the expected mid-level gust pattern at the beginning of the year, and has entered a hurricane pattern of large-scale adjustment. 2. Summarize the reactions of various countries to tariffs in the past two days: 1) Small countries are basically either yielding or actively negotiating, or have already taken the initiative to reduce. For example, Vietnam, Thailand, Israel, Cambodia, etc. 2) The close allies of the United States are basically embracing negotiations or waiting to see, such as the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc; 3) The EU has also proposed a timetable for countermeasures (April 15th and May 15th), but the statement is that negotiations will be held first and the situation will depend on the situation, 4) The strongest naturally comes from Dongda, with strong countermeasures. Trump has already increased the tariff. The 104% tariff, which seems like a joke, will take effect at 12 noon today. Trump's toughness has really caused a lot of controversy, and his team has also started to split up inside Mask, Besant, etc., hoping for a more relaxed tariff. Naturally, Navarro and Lutnik are representatives of the radicals. Personally, I think Trump will not give up tariffs (which is his idea all the time), but it can be said that some future cuts (but 10% of the benchmark tax rate is indispensable), some more intense (such as with China) may be the result of the game, as he said at the end of the original executive order 3) The market's further decline last night was also a response to the fact that there is no exemption policy in effect today; It should be difficult to change the needle to wheat state between China and the United States in the short term. It depends on whether Trump will still have scruples about the market. He still has cards in his hand. For example, reaching an agreement with a small country first to make the market happy for a while. Negotiating with the EU to partially reach an agreement will further boost market sentiment. This is not a question of whether it is possible or not, but a question of whether one wants to or not. 4) In the medium term, the complexity lies in examining the impact on inflation and the fundamentals of enterprises (whether it will significantly increase costs, how much profit it will affect, and what the EPS growth rate will be like) based on the degree of tariff implementation, the degree of reduction for different countries, and the degree of exemption for multinational corporations. The future inflation situation (with tariffs falling in April, the inflation situation in the second quarter is very important) and the economic trend will determine when and how much the Federal Reserve will return to interest rate cuts in the future. Overall, the market may be more indecisive in the coming period. If there are positive factors, the rebound will occur, but if the situation does not fully improve, it will also limit the strength of the rebound; If there is any unexpected impact, it will still kill and rub repeatedly. A prolonged battle with intensity and duration that may far exceed expectations