I'll say it again to avoid some readers getting stuck. The previous expectation of interest rate cuts in May or June was mainly due to the market's belief that tariffs would lead to a recession in the US economy, which would force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, for the Federal Reserve, economic recession may not necessarily occur, so they still insist that they will not choose to cut interest rates in June until they see a decrease in inflation. So that's why the Fed's early interest rate cut can only be triggered by an economic (expected) recession, and this kind of rate cut does not necessarily mean a conclusion that is friendly to the risk market. That is to say, if the June rate cut is caused by the expectation of an economic recession, even if it is a rate cut, it may not necessarily be beneficial to the risk market, because the market already expects to enter a recession. If there is no expectation of an economic recession, such as a non negative GDP in the first quarter, then the Federal Reserve is likely not to choose to cut interest rates in June or earlier, as inflation has not yet truly manifested. PS： People often say that I talk too much nonsense, and I do consider using concise language to explain it. However, there are still many people who only look at the last sentence and do not look at the first sentence, thinking, "You are a big idiot. CME predicted that the Federal Reserve would definitely cut interest rates in May and June, but you said you wouldn't The reason for completely ignoring market predictions is the concern that high tariffs will trigger an economic recession. Is it possible that when I was studying CME, you were still calling me Macro Dog and starting to think that Macro Dog wouldn't even look at CME. If this is not explained clearly, it will only result in the saying, 'What did I say? Are you a big idiot?' or 'You're right both inside and outside the wheel,' without considering that interest rate cuts during an economic recession will not drive the risk market up, and interest rate cuts are not always positive.