Analysis: The unexpected decline in US CPI in March reflects the gradual fading of the impact of price increases at the beginning of the year According to Jin Shi, consumer prices in the United States unexpectedly fell in March, despite Trump lowering tariffs on other countries, inflation risks tend to rise. The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that the March CPI fell 0.1% month on month, while it rose 0.2% in February. This decline may reflect the gradual decline in energy costs and the diminishing impact of price increases at the beginning of the year. After excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the core CPI increased by 0.1% month on month in March and 0.2% in February. From a year-on-year perspective, the core CPI increased by 2.8% in March and 3.1% in February. The March data may only reflect a small portion of Trump's first wave of import tariffs. Kaitou Macro estimates that the inflation rate will peak at around 4%, which is twice the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's March 18-19 meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that policy makers almost unanimously believe that the economy faces the risk of both rising inflation and slowing growth.