This market is really like a cat and dog day by day. Yesterday, there was a risk of a significant rebound in tariffs, but today the market has returned to a downward trend. This is also why it has been emphasized that recent increases are only a rebound, not a reversal, because there is no demand for reversal now. Although the 90 day suspension of equivalent tariffs is a breathing space for the market, the 10% base tariff is still four times the average tariff in the United States in 2024, and the US monetary policy is still in a tight state, and even the US economy is heading downwards. The CPI data released today is actually quite good. Overall inflation has decreased, indicating that inflation has been controlled without implementing the 10% base tariff. Even with China's 20% tariff included, the annual rate of CPI is still lower than market expectations. Without considering the new tariffs, the United States' control over inflation is effective. But as inflation falls, the monthly rate of CPI becomes negative, indicating that the US economy has entered a state of contraction, which is not a good data. This is also why the Federal Reserve has always hoped to maintain inflation at 2%, because too low inflation or deflation may lead to delayed consumption and investment, and economic stagnation. However, excessively high inflation can lead to an increase in the cost of living, wages falling behind prices, savings depreciating, and even social unrest. 2% is a moderate inflation level that compromises between not scaring away consumers and maintaining moderate growth in prices and wages. It encourages consumption and investment while retaining monetary policy flexibility, without triggering inflation panic. So when deflation occurs, it is often due to the expectation of a downturn in the economy. Of course, one month's data does not necessarily mean that there will be problems, but when the market is expecting an economic recession, the indicators of economic downturn will make investors panic, not to mention the GDP test at the end of this month. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin itself, although the price still showed a downward trend, investors did not panic. Short term investors still provided the biggest turnover, while earlier investors, even those who were losing money, did not show signs of a large number of exits. Therefore, the biggest source of pressure on the market at present is not the so-called dog market, but more investors who are struggling in the short-term market. In addition, it can be found that investors between $93000 and $98000 still maintain a stable sentiment and show no signs of panic. The exit of these investors still accounts for only a small part, which also indicates that Bitcoin investors, although not clearly optimistic about the short term, have good expectations for buying at low prices and the future. This future should be when monetary policy returns to loose and the economy remains stable. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex