Old cycles are dead. • BTC gains per halving are shrinking: 90x (2012), 30x (2016), 8x (2020), much less in 2024. • Institutions dominate now—ETFs brought 40B+ in. • Global macro (rates, inflation) moves crypto more than halvings. • Narratives rotate fast, creating mini cycles, e.g., SOL memecoins. • The market is maturing, with less retail mania and more steady inflows. BTC is getting more dependent on global liquidity. So it's quite possible that it will break its ATH again this year.