Polymarket shows that the probability of the United States falling into a recession by 2025 is 60%

According to a report by Golden Finance, according to Polymarket data, the probability of the United States falling into an economic recession by 2025 has risen to 60%. The total trading volume of the predicted market has reached 2.48 million US dollars, with a maturity date of February 28, 2026. The data shows that the probability of predicting the market has been continuously increasing since early March, gradually rising from around 20% to the current 60%. According to market rules, if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares an economic recession within 2025, or if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data shows two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the forecast will be judged as "yes".