Yesterday, in addition to the US Treasury yield breaking through 4.5%, there was another very important indicator worth paying attention to, which is that the US dollar index fell below 100 for the first time since July 2023. According to long-term data and underlying logic, the US dollar index has been showing a negative correlation with the market. That is to say, during the weak US dollar cycle, the Big Dipper often welcomes a bull market (see the Big Dipper circle and the US dollar index box in the figure). However, unlike the previous decline of the US dollar index due to the Fed's more proactive easing, the decline of the US dollar index this time has market panic and concerns about the loss of control caused by internal disagreement in the United States. The risk of political uncertainty caused by Trump's individuals has risen, and the risk of the US economy falling into recession has gradually accumulated. If the recession comes earlier, the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates when inflation is not met, resulting in a damage to the credit margin of the US dollar. If there are clear signs of recession in the short term, the US dollar may further weaken, but Bitcoin needs to be wary of the pullback caused by liquidity shocks. That is to say, we should be vigilant about the impact of the weak US dollar on improving liquidity and the liquidity ebb caused by the US economic recession. Benefits<Disadvantages ->Decline, and vice versa. Although based on past experience, a weak US dollar often contributes to the formation of a Bitcoin bull market, the current decline in the US dollar is driven by the risk of economic recession and is more complex in nature, which may prevent the negative correlation between the US dollar and the big pie from fully exerting positive effects in the short term.