My current thoughts on tariffs: - The policies are working - Foreign nations realize the US is serious and many of them already at negotiating table - The policy changes have created uncertainty, which drove down oil prices, inflation, and 10-year yield — all good things for American families - Wall Street felt pain but now realize the stock market will have fast recovery once clarity on situation is established — cautious optimism is the name of the game at moment - Everyone was yelling about inflation, but as predicted, deflation is the bigger challenge. The Fed has increasing odds of emergency intervention based on crashing inflation and 10-year issue due to selling of bonds - Many US investors I know started going long this past week. Not fully into the market, but they now know a put exists and risk-reward is asymmetric at this point - I still expect the economy to avoid recession and refrain from high inflation. - Expect the tone to shift in media over coming two weeks — Trump will let Bessent talk to the market and all the fear mongers will calm down - American manufacturing and supply chain will see a boom. Many countries already trying to move operations to the US, along with a plethora of US startups assaulting the incumbents with new technology - This is not a trade war at its essence, we are watching the peaceful competition for technological supremacy between the US and China - The Fed will cut rates by end of summer, asset prices hit new ATH by end of year, and everyone forgets the mania of the last few weeks I’d love to learn from all of you. What do you disagree with? What am I missing?