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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Apr 17, 2025 19:10
Eliminate the noise and look at what the market is saying: Despite all of the "fire Powell" headlines, prediction markets have been steady. There is a mere 25% chance that Jerome Powell is out as Fed Chair in 2025, per @Kalshi.
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Timeline

May 17, 15:19【High profit Bitcoin transfers between wallets continue】
May 16, 15:30【Net inflow of foreign investors to US treasury bond bonds reached US $1.2 billion】
May 13, 04:56【US CPI data is coming soon】
May 08, 07:58【Possible to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June next year】
May 08, 03:18【The possibility of a rate cut on June 18th has dropped to 20%】
May 06, 22:59【Polymarket users predict the possibility of unchanged Federal Reserve interest rates】
May 06, 12:27【The possibility of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 4.5%】
May 06, 04:43【Service PMI lower than expected, rising price pressure】
Apr 30, 16:19【Market predicts an increase in the possibility of federal interest rate cuts】
Apr 28, 08:30【Polymarket users predict that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates】

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