The market is now full of uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, but it can be expected that if the economy does not decline, the Fed will maintain the standard of cutting interest rates at least twice in 2025, and there is no possibility of cutting interest rates before June. However, if there is a real expectation of an economic recession, the Fed may be forced to increase the frequency of interest rate cuts, or even start cutting interest rates before expectations, to counter the potential economic downturn exacerbated by tariffs. Speaking of which, if the interest rate cut in 2025 is less than or equal to expectations, it indicates that the US economy is still growing. If the interest rate cut in 2025 is greater than expected and starts cutting interest rates earlier, it means that the Federal Reserve is starting to doubt the US economy, and it also means that the US is likely to have entered a substantial economic recession, which represents the beginning of the "last decline".