Whales’ Market Wrap: Apr 22 BTC 30D ATM IV: 49.94% | ETH 30D ATM IV: 69.64% | SOL 30D ATM IV: 87.79% SPX 30D ATM IV: 27.62% | QQQ 30D ATM IV: 32.03% | GLD 30D ATM IV: 27.28% BTC annualised 1yr implied yield: 7.17% ETH annualised 1yr implied yield: 5.63% On the first trading day after the Easter holiday, the US stock market finally rebounded after a sharp pullback since April. However, similar to every rebound since Trump took office, any current rebound should not be regarded as a bargain-hunting opportunity for equity assets. In fact, while the US stock market and altcoins rebounded, the Gold/SPX ratio remained at its highest point since December 2024, and there was no significant downward trend. Meanwhile, the market share of BTC increased. The excellent performance of BTC and gold was within expectations. For current US dollar-pegged assets, macro uncertainty seems to have taken a secondary position; the tariff war and the crisis over the Federal Reserve's independence have overshadowed the impact of macro factors. Trump's erratic policies, his threats to fire Powell, and the tariff war have caused substantial damage to the US dollar's status and the credibility of US dollar assets. Moreover, considering the uncertainty of Trump's own behaviour, "firing Powell" may be just a verbal threat at the moment, but it may not be so in the days to come. The above situation has led to an unprecedented rise in investors' demand for "alternative payment systems". Traders are more bearish on the dollar than during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the 2008 financial crisis. However, given that the situations in 2008 and 2020 were mostly caused by liquidity squeezes, while current market liquidity is still abundant, the current situation facing the dollar may be more dangerous: investors are orderly withdrawing from the dollar and assets with strong dollar pegs, which is precisely what has happened in US stocks and US bonds in recent times. At the same time, investors have significantly increased their positions in call options on the yen and the euro. Although the US dollar market rebounded slightly today, investors' bullish sentiment on the DXY and the euro has not changed. Benefiting from the US dollar's credit crisis, when the price of BTC returned to above 90,000, its implied forward yield also rose to 7.16%. In contrast, due to its strong correlation with the US dollar, the implied forward yield of ETH has only rebounded to 5.61%, which is still an insignificant distance from the risk-free rate. At the same time, the forward exchange rate term structure of ETH/BTC still maintains backwardation, indicating that traders remain pessimistic about the future performance of equity-like tokens. In the options market, investors' bullish sentiment towards BTC has returned overall, and the bearish and volatile expectations that were previously prevalent in Q2 have nearly disappeared. However, for ETH and altcoins, the bearish sentiment in Q2 has not disappeared, which means that investors expect BTC's strength to continue in the coming period.