Global trade outlook is deteriorating: The World Trade Organization expects world merchandise trade to fall -0.2% in 2025, down from +2.7% growth expected at the beginning of the year. This would follow the +2.9% growth recorded in 2024. North American trade is set to be hit the hardest, while Asia and Europe will continue to see modest growth. The WTO also highlights that if the US imposes higher reciprocal tariffs after a 90-day pause, global merchandise trade could drop by -1.5% this year. For 2026, the WTO forecasts +2.5% growth, down from the previously expected +2.9%. Global trade is experiencing a historic slowdown.