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qinbafrank
qinbafrank|4月 24, 2025 15:43
Regarding trade negotiations, I have seen many people say that countries will look at how China and the United States negotiate before deciding to negotiate with the United States. Personally, I think this view is slightly problematic. The United States has internal conflicts with the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Australia, and many other countries as allies. This alliance is based on decades of close integration of political systems, security guarantees, economic interests, etc. Although there are cracks and the foundation of trust is shaking among allies now, it is difficult to completely collapse in the short term. Further consideration can be given to whether these countries are more inclined towards the United States or China in the context of global geopolitical competition, and clearly the former. Although it is hard for Trump to cut tariffs on its allies, if it can weaken China's strength, these countries should be happy to see it. I should have talked about the United States' collusion and China's collusion first. It should be noted that combining vertically and horizontally are two different modes, while combining vertically and attacking horizontally is to find breakthroughs and break through the encirclement. It is important to pay attention to the differences. Back to the trade negotiations, these allies of the United States, such as Japan, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Mexico, Australia, India, and so on, see each other how the other talks with the United States, who is the first to negotiate how much concessions have been made, how much substantive benefits have been obtained, and whether the Sichuan Council will talk about it again and again. As for the decoupling between China and the United States, it is inevitable, and even they want to get a piece of meat from China. Returning to the game between China and the United States, both sides have cards to play and confidence. China's production capacity, infrastructure capability, supply chain system, organizational efficiency, and the technological capabilities (military, AI, hard technology) demonstrated in the past two years are all the confidence of the game and the hand to strive to break through the encirclement. China has been preparing for decoupling for seven or eight years and has the ability to engage in a protracted war. Perhaps countries and markets have certain expectations for this.
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