When will BTC reach its peak? Latest model evaluation Current price: 94000 US dollars Quantitative model risk score: 56.6% At present, we are launching a second shock, attempting to break through the critical point and enter the speculative acceleration zone. Carving history: In each cycle, prices always experience one or two failed breakthroughs (traps) before eventually peaking. Valuation benchmark: The current stage is equivalent to November 2020 (Bitcoin's $13000 period), after which the price skyrocketed from $13000 to $61000. Analysis of this round: This round of growth may slow down relatively due to the participation of Trump, institutions, listed companies, celebrities, etc., and the fear of tight monetary policy and economic recession. But the key point is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has basically entered the loose channel. Excluding short-term fluctuations caused by economic recession concerns, the macro environment is a strong positive for Bitcoin. Model conclusion: Through model and macro analysis, all Bitcoin peak conditions will be converged by the end of this year: loose monetary policy+fading of tariff impact+combination of pro economic growth policies (tax reduction/relaxation of regulation, etc.)