Bernstein: As companies increase their holdings and ETF 'supply tightening' intensifies, Bitcoin will hit a new high

According to The Block, the narrative of Bitcoin prices has fluctuated between the correlation between "gold" and "NASDAQ" this year. However, Bernstein analysts believe that the short-term correlation is highly misleading, and the key indicators are the drying up of retail selling, the surge of corporate holdings, and the return of ETF funds, which may drive the "supply tightening" to reach new highs in prices. Last week, Twenty One Capital announced an initial hoarding of 42000 BTC (approximately $4 billion), joining the competition of companies such as Strategy. Currently, about 80 companies hold a total of 700000 BTC, accounting for 3.4% of the total supply. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $3 billion, reaching a five month high. The total holdings accounted for 5.5% of the Bitcoin circulation, and the institutional proportion increased from 20% in September last year to 33%, of which 48% were held by investment advisors, reflecting asset allocation needs. Combined with corporate holdings, institutional capital has controlled 9% of BTC supply. If the US government implements strategic reserves, it may trigger sovereign countries to hoard currency. The proportion of BTC balance on the exchange has decreased from 16% at the end of 2023 to 13%, but some assets have only been transferred to ETF custodians. Bernstein analysts estimate that Bitcoin will reach a cyclical peak of approximately $200000 by the end of 2025, $500000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033, with intermittent one-year bear markets during this period.